Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%▼ 1
Install
Battleground Senate Combo: which states will Democrats win?
The odds
43%Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio43%▲ 37
- Democratic sweep31%▼ 11
- Ohio10%▲ 10
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska7%▼ 3
- New Hampshire6%▲ 5
- New Hampshire, Ohio6%▲ 5
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio6%▼ 9
- Michigan4%▲ 3
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska4%▲ 1
- Michigan, New Hampshire3%▼ 2
- Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio3%▼ 1
- Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio3%▲ 2
20 more
- New Hampshire, Alaska3%▲ 2
- New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio3%▼ 1
- Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio3%
- Michigan, Ohio2%▲ 2
- Maine, New Hampshire2%▲ 1
- Maine, Michigan2%▲ 2
- Maine, Michigan, Ohio2%▲ 2
- Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio2%▲ 2
- Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire2%▲ 1
- Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska2%▲ 1
- Republican sweep1%▼ 1
- Alaska1%▲ 1
- Alaska, Ohio1%▲ 1
- Michigan, Alaska1%▲ 1
- Michigan, Alaska, Ohio1%▲ 1
- Maine1%▲ 1
- Maine, Ohio1%▲ 1
- Maine, Alaska1%▲ 1
- Maine, Alaska, Ohio1%▲ 1
- Maine, Michigan, Alaska1%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio: 6% on Oct 20, 43% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 6 PM ETMichigan, New Hampshire…: 6% → 43%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio | 43% | ▲ 37 | 10¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 5.2K |
| Democratic sweep | 31% | ▼ 11 | 10¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 5.9K |
| Ohio | 10% | ▲ 10 | 50¢ | $2.00 | 1.8K | |
| Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska | 7% | ▼ 3 | 5¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 4.6K |
| New Hampshire | 6% | ▲ 5 | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.2K | |
| New Hampshire, Ohio | 6% | ▲ 5 | 1¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.4K |
| Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio | 6% | ▼ 9 | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 4.2K |
| Michigan | 4% | ▲ 3 | 67¢ | $1.49 | 1.4K | |
| Michigan, New Hampshire, Alaska | 4% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 299 | |
| Michigan, New Hampshire | 3% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | $16.67 | 3.7K | |
| Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 6.0K |
| Maine, New Hampshire, Ohio | 3% | ▲ 2 | 6¢ | $16.67 | 3.9K | |
| New Hampshire, Alaska | 3% | ▲ 2 | 5¢ | $20.00 | 254 | |
| New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 4.0K |
| Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 736 | |
| Michigan, Ohio | 2% | ▲ 2 | 46¢ | $2.17 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, New Hampshire | 2% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Michigan | 2% | ▲ 2 | 87¢ | $1.15 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Michigan, Ohio | 2% | ▲ 2 | 63¢ | $1.59 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Ohio | 2% | ▲ 2 | 45¢ | $2.22 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire | 2% | ▲ 1 | 35¢ | $2.86 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska | 2% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | $33.33 | 254 | |
| Republican sweep | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 691 | |
| Alaska | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Alaska, Ohio | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Michigan, Alaska | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Michigan, Alaska, Ohio | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Maine | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Ohio | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Alaska | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Alaska, Ohio | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Maine, Michigan, Alaska | 1% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Battleground Senate Combo
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions