Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
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Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
15%Trimmed Mean Emphasized
- Trimmed Mean Emphasized15%▲ 1
- Reserve President Rejected14%
- Dot Plot Omitted12%▲ 1
- Presser Skipped9%
- Reserve President Removed5%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Trimmed Mean Emphasized: 14% on Oct 20, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trimmed Mean Emphasized | 15% | ▲ 1 | 12¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 3.5K |
| Reserve President Rejected | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 7.2K | |
| Dot Plot Omitted | 12% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 17.9K |
| Presser Skipped | 9% | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 15.6K | |
| Reserve President Removed | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 184 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Trimmed Mean Emphasized, Reserve President Rejected
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 3
- No change20%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
75%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike75%▲ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 2
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%▲ 1
- Other1%▼ 1
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance▲ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.