Brazil Presidential Election
69%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro69%▼ 14
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva31%▲ 14
Install
Estonia parliamentary election winner? (2027)
The odds
41%Isamaa
- Isamaa41%▼ 1
- Centre Party39%
- EKRE7%▲ 1
- Reform Party7%▲ 2
- Social Democrats5%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Isamaa: 42% on Oct 19, 41% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isamaa | 41% | ▼ 1 | 37¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 327 |
| Centre Party | 39% | 37¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 437 | |
| EKRE | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | |
| Reform Party | 7% | ▲ 2 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 20.00 |
| Social Democrats | 5% | ▲ 1 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Estonia, Centre Party
Search ›-
What does Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist really want?In this week's Politics in Sweden, Richard Orange argues that only one question really matters at this stage of government negotiations: the true wishes of the Centre Party and its leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist. In the weeks ahead… -
Hosting Ukraine reconstruction conference to cost Estonia €13.5 millionEstonia will spend €13.5 million to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Tallinn next January, bringing together thousands of international delegates to support Ukraine's reconstruction. "The budget for the Ukraine Recovery Conference… -
Estonia supports postponing methane requirementsThe government endorsed a European Commission proposal at its meeting to postpone certain verification and reporting requirements under the EU Methane Regulation by one year. The additional time will help avoid a situation in which… -
Sweden Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election produced a narrow centre-left majority, with the centre-left bloc holding 176 of 349 seats in the Riksdag, the national legislature. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s government resigned after the… -
Proposal. New national roadmap requires Estonian Convention on the FutureEstonia needs a new mechanism for making long-term strategic decisions that brings together experts, politicians and citizens while remaining above day-to-day party politics, Erik Terk, Mati Heidmets and Marju Lauristin write. The world… -
Sweden's Centre Party leader to explore forming governmentRead more about Sweden's Centre Party leader to explore forming government on Devdiscourse Sweden's Centre Party leader to explore forming government Sweden's parliament speaker said on Monday he has asked Centre Party leader Elisabeth… -
Expert: Estonian party ratings could shift as election campaigning ramps upThe Center Party and Social Democrats topped Emor's October poll as long-time leader Isamaa slipped, with voters' party loyalties still far from firm, said expert Aivar Voog. Voog, a polling expert at Emor, told ERR on Friday that party… -
Defense minister: Estonia not entering the drone warfare era completely barehandedDefense Minister Martin Herem says the threat from Russia will increase dramatically once its war in Ukraine ends, making it essential for Estonia to accelerate defense preparations, strengthen air defenses and ensure the public… -
Sweden's speaker asks Centre Party leader to explore centrist government optionsParliamentary speaker Andreas Norlén has named Centre Party leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist as the next person to lead government negotiations. On October 15th, parliament voted down Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson as prime… -
Outgoing MFA secgen on Estonia's foreign minister: Frankly, we deserve betterForeign Ministry Secretary General Jonatan Vseviov, who is joining the Social Democratic Party (SDE), says Estonia is capable of achieving more in foreign policy and deserves better. In an interview with ERR, Vseviov said his political… -
Estonia plans €4 million upgrade to state app and online portalThe Information System Authority (RIA) plans to upgrade Estonia's state online portal and Eesti app, improving usability and connecting more government systems and services. The RIA has launched a procurement worth up to €4 million to… -
US delivers HIMARS rockets to Estonia — TVTallinn said the delivery of munitions was delayed by the conflict in the Middle East - Russian Politics & Diplomacy Russian Politics & DiplomacyInto section â- Business & Economy Business & EconomyInto section â - Military & Defense…
Related markets
All around the world ›Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
90%Student List – Students Win
- Student List – Students Win90%▲ 59
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia10%▼ 60
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
48%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%48%▲ 12
- Lula da Silva <4%28%▲ 14
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%18%▼ 24
5 more
- Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%3%▼ 3
- Lula da Silva 4-8%2%▲ 1
- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+1%
- Lula da Silva 8-12%<1%
- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
69%Yashar
- Yashar69%▼ 1
- Likud31%
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Next French Presidential Election
44%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen44%▼ 2
- Édouard Philippe16%▼ 1
- David Lisnard14%▲ 1
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%▲ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
- François Hollande3%
- Bruno Retailleau2%
- Gabriel Attal1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
- Anasse Kazib<1%
- Sylvain Durif<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
67%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro67%▼ 16
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva33%▲ 17
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions