Who will AOC endorse? (Before Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3 · $2.4K today · $43.1K traded · $21.2K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

94%Darializa Avila Chevalier

Darializa Avila Chevalier94%
Claire Valdez94%▲ 4
Rashida Tlaib70%▼ 2
Donavan McKinney54%▼ 2
Ilhan Omar30%▲ 3
Connie Chan7%▲ 1
Dan Osborn6%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Darializa Avila Chevalier: 13% on Oct 20, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 23, 11 PM ETDarializa Avila Chevalier: 89% → 95%
- ‘Trump’s Real Nightmare...': Rashida Tlaib Officially Welcomes Abdul El-Sayed To ‘THE SQUAD’ | WatchThe Times of India · 2 days ago
Oct 21, 7 PM ETDarializa Avila Chevalier: 82% → 91%
- President Trump Calls Ilhan Omar “So Pathetic” and Takes A Jab At Rashida Tlaib, Then Praises AOC: “I Like AOC Better. You Know, She’s Doing Her Thing”Yahoo Entertainment · 6 days ago

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
✓ Brad Lander	95%	▲ 50			$1.05	1.3K
Darializa Avila Chevalier	94%		92¢	96¢	$1.04	27.8K
Claire Valdez	94%	▲ 4	91¢	97¢	$1.03	14.1K
Rashida Tlaib	70%	▼ 2	67¢	73¢	$1.37	1.9K
Donavan McKinney	54%	▼ 2	50¢	58¢	$1.72	47.00
Ilhan Omar	30%	▲ 3	27¢	33¢	$3.03	2.7K
Connie Chan	7%	▲ 1	4¢	9¢	$11.11	4.0K
Dan Osborn	6%	▲ 1	2¢	10¢	$10.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Darializa Avila Chevalier, Claire Valdez, Rashida Tlaib

Search ›

‘Trump’s Real Nightmare...': Rashida Tlaib Officially Welcomes Abdul El-Sayed To ‘THE SQUAD’ | WatchThe Times of India · 2 days agoRashida Tlaib is throwing her full political weight behind Abdul El-Sayed as Michigan’s Senate race turns into a major ideological battle ahead of the midterms.Tlaib has repeatedly campaigned for El-Sayed, urging supporters to help elect…
EXCLUSIVE–Stephen Wagley Says Today’s Democrats Are Openly Socialist and CommunistBreitbart · 36 h agoStephen Wagley, a Republican candidate for Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District, said Saturday that Democrats are now openly willing to call themselves socialists or communists. Speaking with host Matthew Boyle on Breitbart News…
Mamdani campaigns with Hochul in Brooklyn ahead of early voting’s startNew York Daily News · 2 days agoMayor Mamdani and Gov. Hochul hit McCarren Park in Williamsburg, a lefty stronghold for the mayor, to urge New Yorkers to vote on Friday, hours before the start of early voting. Enthusiasm — mostly for the mayor — rippled through the park…
Exclusive: Rep. Ryan Zinke’s SEAL PAC Releases Fierce Ad Comparing Socialist, Communist Dictators to Liberal DemocratsBreitbart · 37 h agoRep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), who founded SEAL PAC, released a fierce ad that compares communist and socialist dictators to several liberal, Democrat lawmakers. Zinke warned that the United States faces “a war of ideologies” from communism and…
Iran Plans to Win the War by Helping Democrats WinCanada Free Press · 46 h agoDaniel Greenfield , Bio and Archives--October 23, 2026 American Politics, News | Comments | Reader Friendly | Subscribe | Email Us After years of being told that taking out Iran’s nuclear weapons would lead to WWIII, the Islamic terrorist…
New Democratic voices cool on Trump impeachment pushenmnews.com · 3 days agoFor years, impeachment was one of the loudest weapons in the Democratic arsenal against Donald Trump. Now, a new crop of progressives is sounding far less eager to turn it into a reflex. That shift is showing up in public comments from…
13 US Lawmakers Press Meta on Brazil VoteThe Rio Times · 3 days agoRead our Brazil election 2026 runoff guide → Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Who will win: Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · Brazil election poll data (CSV) · All…
Jayapal, Sanders Question Zuckerberg Over Alleged Meta Interference in Brazilian ElectionCommon Dreams · 3 days agoSupporters of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hold masks depicting Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg with red horns during a demonstration in front of Meta's headquarters in São Paulo, Brazil, on October 19, 2026. "It is unacceptable…
Jill Biden to Arab Americans: Your vote could be the differenceMiddle East Eye · 3 days agoStanding in front of an iconic Arabic bakery in Dearborn, Michigan, Jill Biden, the wife of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, urged Arab Americans to participate in November's election, telling them their vote could be the…
US Muslim student groups drop Emgage from voter mobilisation eventMiddle East Eye · 3 days agoMuslim student groups at more than 30 US universities have dropped Emgage, a Muslim political advocacy group that has come under fierce criticism in recent weeks over its ties with pro-Israel groups, from an event aimed at mobilising young…
Record number of American Muslims contesting U.S. Mid Terms 2026ummid · 3 days agoA record number of American Muslims are contesting the U.S. Midterm elections 2026 scheduled to be held on November 03, 2026. The outcome of the U.S. Mid Term Elections will decide who – Democrats or Republicans, will control the U.S…
Everything to know about Election Day 2026 in QueensQNS · 3 days agoEarly voting is set to begin in Queens for the 2026 midterm elections on Saturday, Oct. 24, and run through Sunday, Nov. 1. With early voting and the Nov. 3 Election Day around the corner, Queens residents should know which candidates and…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Traded$43.1K (51,947 contracts)

Today$2.4K

This week$15.4K

At stake$21.2K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions