Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
31%December 31, 2027
- December 31, 20267%▲ 2
- June 30, 202719%▼ 6
- December 31, 202731%▼ 7
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Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? (Before 2099)
The odds
11%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 11% on Oct 20, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 123.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Elon Musk, Musk, Mars
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Elon Musk says Tesla-SpaceX merger being consideredElon Musk is the top executive of both Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk has said he likes the idea of a merger of Tesla and SpaceX, two of his most notable companies, and it is under active consideration. "Do I think it would be a good idea?… -
Elon Musk ordered Starlink slowdown for Ukraine: ReportElon Musk ordered the slowdown of a version of SpaceX's Starlink that Ukraine has relied on in its war against Russia, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter. Musk, SpaceX's… -
Elon Musk is in Democrats’ oversight crosshairsFrom DOGE to Ukraine, the uberwealthy GOP donor could be an irresistible target if House gavels change hands. More than a year after he left government service, Democrats have not forgotten Musk's role in dismantling federal programs. |… -
Abbott Slams Democrat’s ‘Stunt’ Bid for Elon Musk Messages in Texas LawsuitOct 20, 2026 at 07:04 PM EDT Texas Governor Greg Abbott has dismissed a lawsuit filed by Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa seeking access to confidential communications between his office and Elon Musk's companies, calling it… -
Why is Elon Musk plotting a mega-merger of SpaceX and Tesla?Elon Musk has spent years building Tesla and SpaceX into a pair of trillion-dollar technology empires. Now, he is considering bringing them together. Asked on Tuesday whether a merger would be a good idea, Musk was clear: "Yes." The… -
Gina Hinojosa sues Gov. Abbott over Elon Musk communicationsCBS News Gina Hinojosa sues Gov. Abbott over Elon Musk communications Feeling like fall with a gradual warm-up in North Texas Melissa ISD bus driver arrested for second time in a week for alleged child sex crimes Masked Biden look-alike… -
John Malone Predicts a Major Deal Between Skydance and Elon Musk’s SpaceXThe mogul suggested that SpaceX could invest billions into Skydance to help it delever. Could a major deal between David Ellison’s Skydance and Elon Musk’s SpaceX be brewing? The media mogul John Malone thinks so. Speaking at the Paley… -
Vivian Wilson, Model and Elon Musk’s Estranged Daughter, Signs With Echo Lake Entertainment (EXCLUSIVE)Vivian Jenna Wilson, the model and estranged daughter of Elon Musk, has signed with Echo Lake Entertainment for representation in all areas. The 22-year-old has made a name for herself in fashion and as a digital media personality. She had… -
Want flying cars? America needs thousands more Elon Musks and less red tapeChasing Horsepower founder Mike Caudill joins ‘America Reports’ to discuss the rocket-powered thrusters that allow Tesla’s new Roadster prototype to fly and perform barrel rolls during Elon Musk’s live demonstration. For just a few… -
Elon Musk signals Tesla and SpaceX could merge. Here's why he thinks it's a good idea.October 21, 2026 / 11:29 AM EDT / CBS News Elon Musk on Tuesday said SpaceX and Tesla are exploring a merger — a business combination that one Wall Street analyst said could be worth nearly $5 trillion, which would make it the largest deal… -
If Elon Musk gifts SpaceX stock through Trump Accounts, it will come with a catchElon Musk said on Monday that he will give every kid in America a share of SpaceX next year. He appeared to suggest the gift could land in Trump Accounts — thanking Brad Gerstner, an architect of the program, for "helping enable this" in a… -
Elon Musk says SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss merger ideaTech billionaire Elon Musk said Tuesday that the boards of SpaceX and Tesla had separately formed special committees to discuss the idea of a merger, taking a small step toward the possible consolidation of his two biggest companies. Musk…
Related markets
All space ›Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
May 22, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202617%▼ 2
- January 31, 202723%▼ 7
- February 28, 202730%▼ 5
2 more
- June 30, 202760%▲ 1
- December 31, 202766%
How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)
10.4median
517
Median 10.4Middle half 10.1 – 10.7
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?
37%December 31, 2027
- June 30, 202715%▼ 3
- December 31, 202737%▼ 13
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)
23%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 20, 202923%
- Before Jan 1, 202814%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20275%
2 more
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$929.96Bmedian
$600B$1.3T
Median $929.96BMiddle half $862.27B – $981.69B
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.