Brazil Presidential Election
79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%▼ 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%▲ 2
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When will Venezuela hold a presidential election? (Before Jan 1, 2029)
The odds
Mar 16, 2028even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20273%
- Before Jun 1, 202717%
- Before Jan 1, 202839%
- Before Jul 1, 202866%
- Before Jan 1, 202980%
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 3% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | <1% | 76.2K | ||||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | 42.9K | |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 17% | 15¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 20.1K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 39% | 35¢ | 43¢ | $2.33 | 4.00 | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 66% | 62¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 80% | 76¢ | 84¢ | $1.19 | 2.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Venezuela, Maduro
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Machado says Venezuelans are "very grateful" to Trump for ousting Maduro, after he suggests she can't lead the countryUpdated on: January 6, 2026 / 10:49 PM EST / CBS News Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado hailed President Trump for removing Nicolás Maduro from power and argued her coalition has a mandate to lead the country moving forward… -
Exclusive — Venezuela Opposition Negotiator Dinorah Figuera: Maduro’s Capture Opened ‘the Path to Hope’President Donald Trump’s bold decision to approve the mission to arrest former dictator Nicolás Maduro created the “path to hope” that Venezuelans are cautiously taking toward holding elections, Dinorah Figuera, the surgeon and former… -
In the Venezuelan stronghold of Doral, some voters discouraged by Trump's policies ahead of midterms: "I feel, in a way, betrayed."October 24, 2026 / 9:47 PM EDT / CBS News Latinos voted in record numbers for President Trump in 2024, but polling shows that voting bloc is up for grabs in the midterms. And one region that reflects that shift is Florida's Miami-Dade… -
Venezuela-US TensionsWho runs Venezuela after Maduro, what Washington wants, the sanctions and oil deals, the Maduro case and the live odds. Venezuela and the US explained: who runs the country after Maduro's capture, sanctions and oil, the New York case, the… -
Venezuela Marchers Demand Election DateOpposition supporters marched across Venezuela on Thursday, 22 October 2026, demanding that the government set a date for a presidential election. The marches, which followed the latest round of US-backed talks, are part of our Venezuela… -
US Reportedly Uses Venezuela Files, 23 OctVENEZUELA · US VISAS The United States is reportedly using Venezuela files once held by the country’s intelligence services to screen Venezuelans who ask to enter the US, the Spanish newspaper ABC reported on Friday 23 October 2026. ABC… -
Venezuela OppositionPost Register - Manage Subscription (Pay Your Bill, Vacation Request, Update Account Info) Supporters of opposition leader Maria Corina Machado rally to demand that a date be set for presidential elections in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday… -
Venezuela’s oil reserves disputedA single figure sets Venezuela apart from the rest of the world: 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. But experts say the country's estimate is inherently problematic and far from proven -- rooted in exaggerated, aging data from a… -
Venezuelan Anti-Socialists Hold Nationwide Peaceful Protests Demanding ElectionsThousands of Venezuelans marched through the streets of Caracas and other cities on Thursday against the nation’s socialist regime to demand presidential elections and the safe return of anti-socialist opposition leader María Corina… -
Venezuelans take to streets to demand a date for presidential electionsCaracas, Venezuela — Protesters took to the streets in cities around Venezuela on October 22 to demand the government set a date for presidential elections. The protest comes amid ongoing negotiations between the government of interim… -
Trump Eyes Oil as Rubio Pushes Venezuela TalksWashington’s approach to Venezuela is split between pressure and engagement, as President Trump casts doubt on the country’s readiness for elections while keeping the focus on its oil riches. The contrast has put a spotlight on a familiar… -
What Is Going On Between Venezuela and the United States?VENEZUELA · UNITED STATES · EXPLAINER Live updates: Venezuela-US tensions, every story as it happens → A guide to Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition, US sanctions relief, the New York criminal case and what it means for American investors…
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46%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen46%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe16%
- David Lisnard14%
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%▲ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Gabriel Attal1%▼ 1
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
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Israeli Legislative Election Winner
69%Yashar
- Yashar69%▼ 1
- Likud31%
- Together<1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
81%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro81%▲ 2
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.