Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
US crude oil inventories for the week ending October 23, 2026
The odds
412.5median
405419
Median 412.5Middle half 409.3 – 415.6
How the odds have moved
Median: 412.1 on Oct 22, 412.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 406 million barrels | 90% | ▲ 1 | 88¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | |
| Above 407 million barrels | 89% | ▲ 1 | 87¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | |
| Above 408 million barrels | 82% | ▲ 5 | 79¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | |
| Above 409 million barrels | 78% | ▲ 5 | 75¢ | 80¢ | $1.25 | |
| Above 410 million barrels | 69% | ▼ 2 | 67¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 7.00 |
| Above 411 million barrels | 63% | ▲ 1 | 59¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | |
| Above 412 million barrels | 55% | ▲ 1 | 53¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | |
| Above 413 million barrels | 44% | ▲ 1 | 42¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | |
| Above 414 million barrels | 37% | ▼ 1 | 34¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 3.00 |
| Above 415 million barrels | 28% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 3.00 |
| Above 416 million barrels | 23% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 3.00 |
| Above 417 million barrels | 17% | ▲ 1 | 15¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | |
| Above 418 million barrels | 13% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC
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Fed policy, Q2 earnings, crude oil prices among key market triggers next weekStock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision Mumbai: Stock market investors will closely track the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, a packed corporate earnings calendar, crude oil price movements… -
FPIs withdraw ₹48,056 cr from equities in October so far amid elevated crude oil pricesPublished - October 25, 2026 01:56 pm IST - New Delhi Foreign investors have withdrawn ₹48,056 crore from Indian equities in October so far, amid elevated crude oil prices, escalating West Asia tensions, concerns over inflation and weak… -
Crude Oil Prices Near $120 Amid West Asia Tensions, US Fed Rate Decision & Supply Risks In FocusNew Delhi: Global crude oil prices are approaching the USD 120 per barrel mark as escalating tensions in West Asia and the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision keep energy markets on edge. Analysts expect another volatile week amid… -
FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil pricesForeign portfolio investors sold Rs 53,337 crore worth of Indian equities in October so far as elevated crude oil prices, market weakness and economic pressures weighed on investor sentiment. FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so… -
FPIs withdraw Rs 48,056 cr from equities in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil pricesForeign investors withdrew significant funds from Indian equities in October amid concerns over inflation and crude oil prices. Despite this, there were signs of moderation in selling with two days of net buying. The overall FPI outflows… -
Benchmark indices snap two-week winning streak amid rising crude oil pricesMumbai: Benchmark domestic indices snapped their two-week rising streak dragged by higher crude oil prices due to escalating West Asia conflict. During the holiday-shortened week, the 30-share Sensex at the Bombay Stock Exchange declined 1… -
Uganda turns to TOR for lessons on crude oil refiningA delegation from the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) has visited the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) to learn about crude oil processing as Uganda advances plans to build a refinery. - You are only allowed to submit content which you have created… -
Global crude oil prices hit six-month high on Middle East conflict, fears of US strikes on IranSaturday October 24, 2026 Global crude oil prices surged to a six-month high as investor anxieties mounted over potential US military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks alongside escalating regional conflict in the Middle East. Brent… -
Record Tanker Rates Cripple U.S. Crude Oil Flows to AsiaU.S. Dips Into Strategic Oil Reserve Again Amid Supply Disruptions UT Austin researchers say desalinated… Houthi strikes on Saudi oil… Aramco warns the global oil… The Iran war has made oil tanker voyages so inefficient that vessel… -
Markets Next Week: Crude oil at $117, broader market selloff and Q2 earnings in focusSelling pressure was more pronounced in the broader market, with Nifty Midcap 150 sliding 5.5% and Nifty Smallcap 250 declining 7.1%. The latter recorded its steepest weekly decline since February 2025. Global market weakness, including a… - Navy uncovers 132,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil in RiversThe Nigerian Navy has uncovered an estimated 132,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil in Allison community, Bonny Local Government You Might Also Like Stay Ahead with Us Follow us on Google News and never miss breaking stories, market…
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BPCL Profit Falls 22.5% Amid Crude Oil VolatilityUnique Times Magazine BPCL Profit Falls 22.5% Amid Crude Oil Volatility India’s Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), the country’s third-largest refiner by capacity, reported a 22.5% decline in standalone net profit for the second…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions