2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
8.75%median
-100%100%
Median 8.75%Middle half 6.47% – 10.89%
Install
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
The odds
17.9median
923
Median 17.9Middle half 16.3 – 19.7
How the odds have moved
Median: 17.9 on Oct 20, 17.9 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 98% | ▼ 1 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 152 |
| At least 11 | 98% | ▼ 1 | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 3.4K |
| At least 12 | 96% | ▼ 2 | 93¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 9.2K |
| At least 13 | 95% | ▼ 1 | 92¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 1.4K |
| At least 14 | 94% | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 5.6K | |
| At least 15 | 87% | ▼ 1 | 85¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 11.4K |
| At least 16 | 79% | ▲ 1 | 76¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 1.4K |
| At least 17 | 63% | ▼ 1 | 61¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 3.9K |
| At least 18 | 48% | ▲ 1 | 47¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 2.0K |
| At least 19 | 35% | 34¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 6.1K | |
| At least 20 | 22% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 6.5K |
| At least 21 | 12% | 10¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 3.6K | |
| At least 22 | 6% | ▲ 1 | 4¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 5.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. Senate, Senate, Midterms
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.