Texas Senate winner? (2026)
64%James Talarico
- James Talarico64%
- Ken Paxton37%
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How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
53.3median
52.557.5
Median 53.3Middle half 52.9 – 53.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 53.3 on Oct 20, 53.3 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 53 | 59% | 61¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 149.2K | |
| 53 | 12% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 99.6K |
| 54 | 11% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 85.2K | |
| 55 | 8% | 8¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | 124.6K | |
| 56 | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 113.0K | |
| 57 | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | 121.0K | |
| Above 57 | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | 134.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate, Midterms, Higher
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Trump and Obama hit campaign trail in key midterm Senate showdownsPolk County GOP Chair Sam Romain and AFP Action senior advisor Tim Golding analyze the impact of President Donald Trump and Barack Obama campaigning in Michigan and Florida as candidates prepare for Senate and gubernatorial elections… -
Midterm Mayhem: It Gets Worse for Ilhan Omar, MN Senate Candidate's Extremism ExposedIt’s Fun Time Friday on the Ruthless Variety Program, and the fellas are working hard. Midterm Mayhem: It Gets Worse for Ilhan Omar, MN Senate Candidate's Extremism Exposed It’s Fun Time Friday on the Ruthless Variety Program, and the… -
These key races in the 2026 midterms will decide who controls the US Senate – video explainerTo reclaim control of the Senate, Democrats need to retain all the Senate seats they have and flip four more in the 2026 midterm elections. Shrai Popat, the Guardian's US politics reporter, explains which are the key races to watch in… -
2026 Senate Battleground Polls: Midterm Primary TrendsNBC News Senate battlegrounds: Latest polls See how candidates are polling in competitive races for the U.S. Senate, seats critical to control of the chamber in November. Republicans are fighting to maintain and expand their majority… -
Rogers, El-Sayed hold final Michigan Senate debate before midterm electionCBS News Rogers, El-Sayed hold final Michigan Senate debate before midterm election A look into Sterling Heights City Council vote on Flock cameras Michigan coney island regular remembered for his positive impact Guitars stolen from 90s… -
Map Shows Where Top 2028 Democrats Are Campaigning Ahead of MidtermsOct 23, 2026 at 06:38 PM EDT Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are hitting the campaign… -
Takeaways from the Senate debate in Kansas, an unexpected midterm battlegroundBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Kansas voters have not… -
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat… -
Michigan Democrat says she will stand up to antisemitism, Islamophobia amid heated US senate raceRep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., says she is prioritizing healthcare policy in her decision to support Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed on ‘The Story.’ Michigan Democrat says she will stand up to antisemitism, Islamophobia amid… -
The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip, less than two weeks before the midtermsWith the November election in sight, Democratic excitement about the party winning control of the US Senate is running high, but it’s far from a sure bet. Democrats have a 10-point advantage over Republicans nationwide in voters’ choice in… -
Senate Democrats’ campaign arm takes out $15M loan - Live Updates - POLITICOThe loan, reported in a Thursday FEC filing, follows a similar move from Senate Republicans last month. Senate Democrats have taken out a $15 million loan as they hope to expand their map in the final days before the midterms The partyâs… -
Minnesota Democrats divided over Hasan Piker visit a week before midtermsUpdated on: October 22, 2026 / 9:47 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota A controversial left-wing commentator's visit to Minnesota one week before the midterm elections is dividing Democrats, many of whom are distancing themselves from him. Hasan…
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All senate ›Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
64%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party64%▼ 2
- Republican Party36%▲ 3
Texas Senate Election Winner
63%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)63%▼ 1
- Ken Paxton (R)38%▲ 1
Michigan Senate Election Winner
72%Abdul El-Sayed (D)
- Abdul El-Sayed (D)72%▲ 1
- Mike Rogers (R)28%▼ 1
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
66%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep66%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate25%▲ 1
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Maine Senate Election Winner
64%Troy Jackson (D)
- Troy Jackson (D)64%▼ 3
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.