Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.7median
140230
Median 189.7Middle half 176.9 – 200.8
Install
Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?
The odds
Feb 18, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20277%▲ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202761%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 19, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 6.00 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 61% | ▲ 1 | 56¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 105 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: impeachment, Alexandre de Moraes, Brazil's Senate
Search ›-
Brazil runoff live updates: polls set to close as Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in race for presidencyThundering to a crowd of thousands of far-right supporters in São Paulo on 7 September, Brazil’s Independence Day, the senator Flávio Bolsonaro focused less on his opponent in the presidential election, the leftist president Luiz Inácio… -
Impeachment is back on the menuThe unofficial guide to official Washington, every morning and weekday afternoons. 10/21/2026 01:40 PM EDT Impeachment dominated much of Donald Trump’s first presidency. Voters think it should come back for a sequel. Half of Americans… -
Brazilians burn Trump effigies as tariffs spark angerMon, Oct 26, 2026 | Jumada al-Awwal 14, 1448 | Fajr 05:05|DXB 28°C Brazilians set fire to effigies of Donald Trump in protests across several cities Friday, denouncing the US president's politically motivated trade tariffs. Anti-Trump… -
Adam Schiff says Democrats should put 'overriding emphasis' on costs, not impeachmentIn an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) says Democratic oversight should focus on bringing down costs and corruption, that could potentially lead to impeachment. Kornacki: Where Democrats see openings for… -
Brazil’s democracy on a knife’s edgeBrazil is fast approaching a decisive presidential runoff, with a revanchist far-right seeking to consolidate its political power as a growing movement of students and workers mobilizes in defence of democracy. Alongside his inflammatory… - Pete Hegseth eyeing Senate seat as impeachment threat looms: reportDefense Secretary could seek to succeed Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee rather than wait to be forced out of the Pentagon by congressional Democrats or President Donald Trump, it is claimed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is reportedly…
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Sanders could soon get a Senate bully pulpitYour first read on Capitol Hill politics and policy. 10/26/2026 04:50 AM EDT IN TODAY’S EDITION:— Trump-spurned Republicans snub successors— Dems plan Trump target in Epstein probe— Blanche defends Alaska election suit Bernie Sanders is… -
Trump administration faces record vacancies in Senate-confirmed postsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the GOP faces a… -
Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of… -
9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate… -
Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026… -
Trump calls Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed a ‘jihadist’President Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Port Huron, Michigan, about Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, his family’s alleged support for terrorist organizations and Trump’s characterization of El-Sayed as a ‘jihadist.’ Trump…
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297.0median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions