Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
Install
Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
53%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 54% on Oct 20, 53% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | ▲ 1 | 52¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 469.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate
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Democrats ask judge to dismiss Trump administration’s challenge to Alaska Senate raceAttorneys for Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and Senate Democrats filed a motion Friday urging a federal judge to drop the Trump administration’s lawsuit that seeks to block the results of the upcoming election if… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The… - Democrat in Alaska’s toss-up Senate race reschedules events after car crashBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Mary Peltola suffered…
- A Black Democrat has a chance to win in Mississippi’s Senate raceBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Scott Colom has a shot…
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Blanche DEFENDS DOJ's Alaska Senate election lawsuitU.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche defends the Justice Department's preemptive lawsuit involving Alaska's U.S. Senate race, arguing the legal action is intended to prevent voter confusion rather than stop ballots from being cast. Blanche… -
Sanders could soon get a Senate bully pulpitYour first read on Capitol Hill politics and policy. 10/26/2026 04:50 AM EDT IN TODAY’S EDITION:— Trump-spurned Republicans snub successors— Dems plan Trump target in Epstein probe— Blanche defends Alaska election suit Bernie Sanders is… -
Republicans Could Still Keep the Senate. Here’s HowOct 26, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Certain preelection forecasts have Democrats riding a blue wave to majorities in both the House and the Senate, but there are a few ways for the GOP to keep its grasp on the upper chamber for the remainder of… -
Trump administration faces record vacancies in Senate-confirmed postsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. As the GOP faces a… -
Senate Democrat Probes Tether Payments to Ex-White House Crypto Adviser’s FirmTether is facing fresh scrutiny in the Senate over millions of dollars that reportedly flowed to a firm co-owned by Bo Hines while he helped shape U.S. stablecoin law at the White House. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., the top Democrat… -
9 US Senate races could determine control of the chamberThe Ben Shapiro Show’ host Ben Shapiro joins ‘One Nation’ to discuss nine U.S. Senate races that could determine control of the Senate, Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and the 2028 presidential election. 9 US Senate… -
Iowa’s Senate rivals pitch independence from their partiesAshley Hinson qualified her pledge to be Trump’s strongest ally, while Josh Turek praised the president’s border record. U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek speaks during a debate with his Republican opponent, Ashley Hinson, on Oct. 7, 2026… -
Sen. Kevin Cramer: Senate control looks like a 50/50 tossupSen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the midterm elections, top races to watch in November, and more. Sen. Kevin Cramer: Senate control looks like a 50/50 tossup
Related markets
All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 2
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
64%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party64%▲ 2
- Republican Party36%▼ 1
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
77%Darline Graham
- Darline Graham77%▼ 3
- Annie Andrews24%▲ 3
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate28%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep9%
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Florida Senate winner? (2026)
89%Ashley Moody
- Ashley Moody89%▼ 1
- Angie Nixon12%▲ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions