Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico? (Before Nov 3, 2026)

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3 · $9 today · $610 traded · $378 at stake · prices read 7 min ago

The odds

4%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 3% on Oct 19, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	15.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: John Cornyn, James Talarico

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WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinFox News · 2 days agoDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to…
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopFox News · 2 days agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas…
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’the Guardian · 2 days agoThe Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is…
WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TXFox News · 2 days agoDemocratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico speaks with voters during a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour meet-and-greet in Temple, Texas. WATCH LIVE: James Talarico speaks at campaign meet-and-greet in Temple, TX Democratic U.S…
Actress Eva Longoria Joining Rally for Texas Democrat James TalaricoBreitbart · 2 days agoActress Eva Longoria of Desperate Housewives fame is set to join radical, left-wing Texas Democrat U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico in San Antonio on Saturday, a report says. Talarico is scheduled to appear at Club 1902 in the first of…
Russian disinformation group targets James Talarico with baseless claim in AI-generated videoKCRA · 2 days agoA social media video purporting to show a former student accusing Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico of sexual misconduct is the latest example of how Russian groups are generating false information to influence U.S…
Prominent Texas Republicans Endorse Democrat James Talarico for SenateteleSURenglish · 3 days agoOctober 23, 2026 Hour: 10:44 am Two prominent Republican voices in Texas have announced their support in recent days for Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton, less than two weeks before the midterm…
Who Is James Talarico? The Democrat Who Could Turn Texas Blue After 30 Years Of GOP DominanceNews18 · 2 days agoJames Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher, is hoping to turn Texas blue for the first time in more than three decades, with a campaign built around Christian faith, economic fairness and a promise to challenge the political…
EXCLUSIVE: Newly Unearthed Photos of James Talarico Raise Authenticity Concerns@FreeBeacon · 2 days agoMost reasonable observers can agree that James Talarico, the Democrat running for student body president U.S. Senate in Texas, has an authenticity problem. The real James Talarico loves "trans kids" and can name his favorite drag queen in…
New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat BlueForbes · 2 days agoOn "Forbes Newsroom," Emerson College Polling senior director Matt Taglia discussed the recent poll that shows Talarico slightly ahead of Paxton in a tight Senate race. New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas Senate Seat Blue On…
James Talarico 4 points ahead of Ken Paxton in nonpartisan poll as election loomsSan Antonio Current · 2 days agoWith just 11 days until the midterms, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 47% in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, according to a nonpartisan poll released Friday. The same poll, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research…
Texas law enforcement honchos throw support to James Talarico as rival calls him anti-copSan Antonio Current · 2 days agoEven though Ken Paxton has promoted himself as the tough-on-crime candidate in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, some Lone Star State law enforcement officials are throwing their support behind his Democratic rival. The latest is Charley Wilkison…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onJohn Cornyn, John Cornyn Senate Office, The Associated Press

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Traded$610 (15,262 contracts)

Today$9

This week$244

At stake$378

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If John Cornyn publicly endorses James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions