Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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Closest Senate race in 2026?
The odds
15%Iowa
- Iowa15%▼ 1
- Texas15%▼ 1
- Kansas13%▼ 3
- Maine9%▼ 1
- Michigan9%
- South Carolina7%▲ 2
- Ohio7%
- Alaska7%
- Nebraska6%
- Minnesota3%
- Florida2%
- Montana1%
8 more
- Mississippi1%
- New Hampshire1%
- South Dakota<1%
- Idaho<1%
- Arkansas<1%
- Louisiana<1%
- Georgia<1%
- North Carolina<1%
How the odds have moved
Iowa: 14% on Oct 20, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 15% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 80.9K |
| Texas | 15% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 114.9K |
| Kansas | 13% | ▼ 3 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 118.6K |
| Maine | 9% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | 72.8K |
| Michigan | 9% | 9¢ | 9¢ | $11.63 | 94.1K | |
| South Carolina | 7% | ▲ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 71.5K |
| Ohio | 7% | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.08 | 77.4K | |
| Alaska | 7% | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 95.1K | |
| Nebraska | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | 54.8K | |
| Minnesota | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $27.03 | 49.4K | |
| Florida | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 59.1K | |
| Montana | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 57.8K | |
| Mississippi | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 47.9K | |
| New Hampshire | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | 50.5K | |
| South Dakota | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 38.3K | ||
| Idaho | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 42.8K | ||
| Arkansas | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 20.6K | ||
| Louisiana | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 19.8K | ||
| Georgia | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 70.4K | ||
| North Carolina | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | 51.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Closest Senate
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Trump Admin Seeks to Block Alaska Senate Result if Dan Sullivan LosesOct 23, 2026 at 04:43 AM EDT Oct 23, 2026 at 11:19 AM EDT The Trump administration aims to stop Alaska from certifying the Senate race result if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola and votes for another candidate… -
Maine’s ranked-choice system could decide the Senate under a hot spotlightIf the U.S. Senate race between U.S. Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson is close, the country may wait days to learn whether it is headed to a ranked-choice count and a week or more to learn who won. Only first choices are… -
‘One hell of a beautiful ass’: President Trump praises Nicki MinajPresident Donald Trump has spent the final weeks before the midterm elections holding rallies across the country, and some of his most memorable moments have had nothing to do with policy. On Sunday, he added another one. While speaking at… -
El-Sayed Says Israel Is ‘Not Our Friend,’ Giving Rogers New Ammunition in Tight Michigan Senate RaceMichigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed said Israel is “not our friend,” remarks that Republicans quickly seized on in one of the closest Senate races in the country. Asked by ABC News’ Linsey Davis whether he considers Israel an… -
Former Dem Senator Set to Campaign For GOP’s CollinsA long-time Democrat who left the party to become an Independent as it shifted further to the left is embracing a former GOP colleague as she fights for reelection. Former Sen. Joe Manchin is campaigning alongside Republican Sen. Susan… -
Election Model Defies New Ohio Poll, Keeps Jon Husted Barely Favored Over Sherrod BrownRepublican Sen. Jon Husted just got a potentially crucial piece of good news in one of the closest Senate races in America. A new forecast gives Husted the narrowest of edges over Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s special U.S. Senate… -
Republican and Democratic paths to Senate victory(NewsNation) — As President Donald Trump's second term approaches its halfway point, Democrats and Republicans are fighting to take control of the U.S. Senate this midterm season. With the war in Iran, rising gas prices and record-low… -
The nine closest Senate races flooded with nearly $1BILLION as race for power comes down to the wire: See the Republican v Democrat breakdownBy SAMANTHA LOREN, US POLITICAL REPORTER Senate Democratic hopefuls continue producing memorable viral ads as the clock ticks down to Election Day. In Texas, James Talarico's campaign turned Ken Paxton's real estate holdings into a spoof… -
Roberts: Even hit shows get cancelled“President Trump has been saying, ‘Vote as if I was on the ballot,’ and that’s exactly what I’m going to do — not vote,” Brandon Tremaine, a graduate student in Texas who voted for Trump in 2020, told The New York Times. “You do not… -
Talarico Takes Fire, Then Fights Back in High-Stakes Senate ClashTexas Democrat James Talarico walked into a CNN town hall on Wednesday with one of the state’s closest Senate contests hanging over him, and left having fielded pointed questions on faith, abortion, Israel and foreign aid. The exchange… -
Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the GOP's vulnerability in the midtermsInside the White House with Liz Landers NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter join Geoff Bennett to discuss the latest political news, including President Trump on the campaign trail with the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions