When will Anthropic release Claude 6? (Claude 6+ (any family))

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Dec 30, 2027 · $16 today · $3.6K traded · $2.1K at stake · prices read 24 min ago

The odds

May 5, 2027even chance by

Before Dec 31, 202622%▲ 1
Before Mar 31, 202742%▲ 1
Before Jun 30, 202764%
Before Sep 30, 202781%
Before Dec 31, 202790%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 31, 2026	22%	▲ 1	19¢	24¢	$4.17	3.1K
Before Mar 31, 2027	42%	▲ 1	41¢	42¢	$2.38	5.5K
Before Jun 30, 2027	64%		60¢	68¢	$1.47	819
Before Sep 30, 2027	81%		76¢	85¢	$1.18	200
Before Dec 31, 2027	90%		85¢	94¢	$1.06

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All ai ›

Tech › AI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

16%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Nov 1, 20262%▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 20263%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202716%▲ 6

Tech › AI

When will Anthropic release Opus 6?

15%Before Dec 1, 2026

Before Nov 1, 20268%
Before Nov 16, 202611%
Before Dec 1, 202615%

Tech › AI

Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?

24%December 31, 2029

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 202817%▼ 2
December 31, 202924%

Tech › AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

73%Google

Google73%▲ 3
Anthropic24%▼ 5
OpenAI1%

18 more

Meta<1%
Alibaba<1%
Moonshot<1%
Baidu<1%
Z.ai<1%
Xiaomi<1%
SpaceXAI<1%
DeepSeek<1%
Amazon<1%
ByteDance<1%
Nvidia<1%
Thinky<1%
MiniMax<1%
Mistral<1%
Meituan<1%
Tencent<1%
StepFun<1%
Microsoft<1%

Tech › AI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Oct 27, 2026even chance by

October 2120%▼ 22
October 2240%▼ 22
October 2440%▼ 32

2 more

October 3175%▼ 7
December 3198%

Tech › AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$2.1Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.1T.

Reaches $1.5T91%
Reaches $1.75T69%

Falls to $800B4%
Falls to $700B4%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAnthropic

Trading closesDec 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$3.6K (9,622 contracts)

Today$16

This week$3.6K

At stake$2.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Anthropic releases Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.