Will China unban Bitcoin?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders For Jul 8 · $53 traded · $34 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

19%Before 2030

Before 203019%▲ 1
Before 202914%▲ 1
Before 202810%▲ 1
Before 20273%

How the odds have moved

Before 2030: 19% on Oct 19, 19% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2030	19%	▲ 1	15¢	23¢	$4.35	57.00
Before 2029	14%	▲ 1	10¢	18¢	$5.56	71.00
Before 2028	10%	▲ 1	5¢	14¢	$7.14	59.00
Before 2027	3%		1¢	4¢	$25.00	1.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Bitcoin, People's Republic of China, China

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People's Republic of China - the latest news on the topicSputnik International · 28 h agoSputnik International is a global news media keeping you updated on all the latest world news 24/7. Browse Sputnik for breaking news and top stories on politics, economy, social media and the most viral trends. People's Republic of China
Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Operations Group gave a speech at The Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2026 in Beijing, People's Republic of China.Bank of Thailand · 5 days agoLatest news from the BOT Latest Speeches of Governor, Deputy Governors and BOT Executive Events/Activities held by the BOT to strengthen relationships with stakeholders Maintaining the price levels not to fluctuate too quickly in order to…
HH the Amir Sends Condolences to President of ChinaQatar news agency · 44 h agoQatar news agency HH the Amir Sends Condolences to President of China Doha, October 24 (QNA) - HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani sent a cable of condolences to HE President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping on the…
Amir sends condolences to Chinese president@thepeninsulaqatar · 38 h agoDoha, Qatar: The Amir, HH Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has sent a message of condolences to President of the People s Republic of China HE Xi Jinpi... Amir sends condolences to Chinese president Doha, Qatar: The Amir, HH Sheikh Tamim…
Amir sends condolences to president of ChinaQatar Tribune · 44 h agoQatar Tribune Amir sends condolences to president of China His Highness the Amir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sent a cable of condolences to President of the People's Republic of China HE Xi Jinping, on the victims…
What to know about China's plenum as Xi seeks stronger Communist Party disciplineThe Korea Times · 3 h agoHONG KONG — China's political leaders and elites began a four-day meeting Monday to discuss strengthening the ruling Communist Party's discipline, as Chinese President Xi Jinping pushes for greater loyalty and reliability from officials…
October 25, 1945: China takes control of TaiwanFakti.bg · 34 h agoOct 25, 2026 02:00 107 The ceremony in which Japan hands over control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands is held in Taipei City Hall on October 25, 1945. Japanese Governor-General Rikichi Ando signs the surrender documents, and General Chen…
CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited Obtains Clinical Trial Approval For SYS6088 Injection In ChinaMarketScreener · 3 days agoCSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited's SYS6088 Injection developed by the Group obtained approval from the National Medical Products Administration of the People's Republic of China to conduct clinical... CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited's…
Electric Vehicle Stocks To Consider – October 23rdDefense World · 27 h agoTesla, Rivian Automotive, BorgWarner, NIO, and XPENG are the five Electric Vehicle stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat’s stock screener tool. Electric vehicle stocks are shares of publicly traded companies involved in producing…
China moves to seize 61,800 Bitcoin in $5.7B fraud case@coindesk · 4 days ago| CoinDesk Videos CoinDesk
Retaliation Threatened if the UK Joins EU Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehiclesautoevolution · 3 days agoLondon, however, finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Beijing has recently issued a warning, with the Ministry of Commerce threatening countermeasures if the United Kingdom imposes EU-style tariffs on Chinese-built electric…
Bitcoin ETFs Snap Two-Week Losing Streak Despite Late-Week SlideDecrypt · 15 h agoBitcoin ETFs ended a choppy week in the green, but only just. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $137.9 million on Friday, according to Decrypt’s ETF tracker, their second straight day of outflows. The two-day slide totaled about $773.5 million…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe government of the People's Republic of China

MeasuredJul 8, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$53 (1,242 contracts)

This week$1

At stake$34

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces a nationwide policy permitting members of the general public in mainland China to legally buy and sell Bitcoin through a government-authorized exchange, bank, broker, or other regulated trading platform before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions