Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
193.8median
160230
Median 193.8Middle half 187.0 – 200.6
Install
Will China abolish hukou?
The odds
15%Before 2030
- Before 203015%
- Before 202912%
- Before 20287%
- Before 20275%
How the odds have moved
Before 2030: 16% on Oct 19, 15% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 15% | 13¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 1.5K | |
| Before 2029 | 12% | 8¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 3.8K | |
| Before 2028 | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.6K | |
| Before 2027 | 5% | 9¢ | $11.11 | 628 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan, People's Republic of China
Search ›-
People's Republic of China - the latest news on the topicSputnik International is a global news media keeping you updated on all the latest world news 24/7. Browse Sputnik for breaking news and top stories on politics, economy, social media and the most viral trends. People's Republic of China - October 25, 1945: China takes control of TaiwanOct 25, 2026 02:00 107 The ceremony in which Japan hands over control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands is held in Taipei City Hall on October 25, 1945. Japanese Governor-General Rikichi Ando signs the surrender documents, and General Chen…
-
Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Operations Group gave a speech at The Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2026 in Beijing, People's Republic of China.Latest news from the BOT Latest Speeches of Governor, Deputy Governors and BOT Executive Events/Activities held by the BOT to strengthen relationships with stakeholders Maintaining the price levels not to fluctuate too quickly in order to… -
HH the Amir Sends Condolences to President of ChinaQatar news agency HH the Amir Sends Condolences to President of China Doha, October 24 (QNA) - HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani sent a cable of condolences to HE President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping on the… -
Amir sends condolences to Chinese presidentDoha, Qatar: The Amir, HH Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has sent a message of condolences to President of the People s Republic of China HE Xi Jinpi... Amir sends condolences to Chinese president Doha, Qatar: The Amir, HH Sheikh Tamim… -
Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to ChinaSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power… -
Amir sends condolences to president of ChinaQatar Tribune Amir sends condolences to president of China His Highness the Amir of the State of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sent a cable of condolences to President of the People's Republic of China HE Xi Jinping, on the victims… -
What to know about China's plenum as Xi seeks stronger Communist Party disciplineHONG KONG — China's political leaders and elites began a four-day meeting Monday to discuss strengthening the ruling Communist Party's discipline, as Chinese President Xi Jinping pushes for greater loyalty and reliability from officials… -
Photo exhibition in Kenya to mark 81st anniversary of Taiwan's restorationGuo Haiyan, Chinese Ambassador to Kenya, said the historical fact of Taiwan's restoration, together with international legal instruments, including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and the Japanese Instrument of Surrender… -
Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese mainland marketI came here from Taiwan over 30 years ago to sell squid. We've all witnessed Xiamen's development. This time, I've brought high-quality seafood products from Taiwan, including giant grouper, ... Taiwan seafood products enter the Chinese… -
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to ChinaOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering… -
China is trying to impose its own rules around Taiwan's PratasOn 21 October, Zhang Han, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, said that the Chinese Coast Guard operating around the Pratas Islands in the South China Sea was lawfully…
Related markets
All world leaders ›When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 11, 2028even chance by
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
- Before Dec 1, 20266%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 1
14 more
- Before Feb 1, 20278%▼ 1
- Before Mar 1, 202713%
- Before Apr 1, 202718%▲ 1
- Before May 1, 202719%
- Before Jun 1, 202725%
- Before Jul 1, 202732%▲ 1
- Before Aug 1, 202733%
- Before Sep 1, 202734%
- Before Oct 1, 202737%
- Before Nov 1, 202741%
- Before Dec 1, 202741%
- Before Jan 1, 202848%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202857%
- Before Jan 1, 202960%
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
298.1median
250340
Median 298.1Middle half 291.7 – 307
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
197.4median
160230
Median 197.4Middle half 189.4 – 202.7
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.7median
140230
Median 189.7Middle half 176.3 – 200.8
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
296.6median
250340
Median 296.6Middle half 284.2 – 308.2
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions