Will China obtain an EUV machine? (Before Jan 1, 2030)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $664 traded · $135 at stake · prices read 80 min ago

The odds

Oct 25, 2028even chance by

Before Jan 1, 20278%
Before Jan 1, 202831%
Before Jan 1, 202955%
Before Jan 1, 203070%

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 19, 8% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	8%	4¢	12¢	$8.33	889
Before Jan 1, 2028	31%	26¢	35¢	$2.86	228
Before Jan 1, 2029	55%	50¢	59¢	$1.69	849
Before Jan 1, 2030	70%	66¢	74¢	$1.35	86.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan

Search ›

Typhoon Champi kills one and injures more than 500 in Taiwan as it heads to Chinathe Guardian · 45 h agoSuper typhoon weakening but large parts of Taiwan, including Taipei, still mostly closed and flights cancelled Typhoon Champi swept past Taiwan on Saturday killing one person, injuring more than 500, and uprooting trees and severing power…
Typhoon Champi roars towards Taiwan, Japan and China bringing heavy rain and windBBC News · 3 days agoTaiwan is bracing for powerful Typhoon Champi, which is set to make landfall on Friday with gusts of up to 173 kph (107mph) and a 320km radius that will envelope the entire island Taiwanese authorities have urged people to stay away from…
Never to be undermined: Remembering Taiwan's return to China@ChinaDailyApp · 25 h agoOct 25 marks the Commemoration Day of Taiwan's Restoration. Eighty-one years ago, Taiwan returned to China after half a century of Japanese colonial rule. "The restoration of Taiwan was achieved ... Never to be undermined: Remembering…
Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around IslandNTD · 44 h agoChina is ramping up pressure on Taiwan, with Chinese military and Coast Guard vessels operating in waters around the island every day. What would you like to watch today? Taiwan Warns of More Chinese Presence Around Island What Pollsters…
Massive waves thrash Taiwan as super typhoon Champi slams islandNew York Post · 31 h agoWild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries. Wild weather slammed Taiwan and Japan on October 23rd, as Typhoon Champi neared the countries.
Tropical Storm Champi nears mainland China after battering Taiwan, JapanMacau Business · 30 h agoA powerful storm swept towards mainland China on Saturday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Typhoon Champi was…
China accused of pressuring families of Taiwan politicians ahead of key electionNews18 · 32 h agoTaipei [Taiwan], October 24 (ANI): China is allegedly stepping up efforts to intimidate relatives of Taiwanese politicians it considers supporters of independence, raising concerns about possible interference in Taiwan’s upcoming…
October 25, 1945: China takes control of TaiwanFakti.bg · 25 h agoOct 25, 2026 02:00 107 The ceremony in which Japan hands over control of Taiwan and the Penghu Islands is held in Taipei City Hall on October 25, 1945. Japanese Governor-General Rikichi Ando signs the surrender documents, and General Chen…
Tropical Storm Champi nears China after battering Taiwan, JapanGulf Times · 13 h agoA powerful storm swept towards China yesterday after battering Taiwan and Japan’s southernmost islands, knocking out power to thousands of households and forcing the cancellation of hundreds of ... Choose a section, type your search topic…
Iran's mountain shelters offer Taiwan a China survival playbookAsia Times · 3 days agoIran’s rapid post-strike recovery of its Eagle 44 airbase proves that hardened mountain shelters remain a decisive shield against precision firepower, transforming how inferior air forces survive and deter superior adversaries. This month…
Taiwan tightens semiconductor export controls on Huawei and SMIC amid US-China tech rivalryCryptoSlate · 29 h agoTaiwan has added Huawei and SMIC to its high-tech export blacklist, tightening controls amid US-China tech competition. The updated Strategic High-Tech Commodities Entity List, released by Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, now…
The China-Taiwan Diplomatic War Is More About Politics Than EconomicsThe Diplomat · 2 days agoTaiwan’s formal relationships in Africa and Latin America point to the real factors driving recognition decisions – and it’s not “dollar diplomacy.” An honor guard stands at attention with flags of Taiwan and Paraguay during a welcome…

Related markets

All world leaders ›

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)

189.5median

140230

Median 189.5Middle half 177.2 – 200.8

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)

295median

250340

Median 295Middle half 282 – 308.2

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)

197.4median

160230

Median 197.4Middle half 189.8 – 202.9

Politics › World leaders

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Feb 18, 2028even chance by

Before Nov 1, 20261%▼ 1
Before Dec 1, 20265%
Before Jan 1, 20278%

14 more

Before Feb 1, 20279%▼ 1
Before Mar 1, 202713%▼ 2
Before Apr 1, 202717%▼ 1
Before May 1, 202719%▼ 1
Before Jun 1, 202725%
Before Jul 1, 202731%
Before Aug 1, 202733%
Before Sep 1, 202734%▼ 1
Before Oct 1, 202737%
Before Nov 1, 202741%
Before Dec 1, 202741%
Before Jan 1, 202848%▼ 1
Before Jul 1, 202857%▲ 2
Before Jan 1, 202960%

Politics › World leaders

Will France declare a state of emergency? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

20%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Nov 1, 20266%▼ 2
Before Jan 1, 202720%▼ 3

Politics › World leaders

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)

191.4median

160230

Median 191.4Middle half 184.3 – 202.7

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onSemafor, ABC, Bloomberg

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$664 (2,053 contracts)

This week$17

At stake$135

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions