Bank of Russia decision in December?
71%No change
- No change71%▼ 1
- 25 bps decrease22%▲ 4
- 50+ bps decrease3%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase2%▼ 1
1 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
Install
Bank of Russia rate decision in December (Dec 18, 2026 meeting)
The odds
67%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate67%▲ 1
- Cut 1-25bps20%▲ 2
- Cut more than 25bps5%▼ 2
- Hike 1-25bps4%
- Hike more than 25bps4%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 60% on Oct 23, 67% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 11 PM ETMaintain current rate: 63% → 69%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 67% | ▲ 1 | 67¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 1.6K |
| Cut 1-25bps | 20% | ▲ 2 | 20¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 288 |
| Cut more than 25bps | 5% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 214 |
| Hike 1-25bps | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 52.00 | |
| Hike more than 25bps | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Bank of Russia rate decision in December (Dec 18, 2026 meeting)HoldKalshi 67%Polymarket 71%4 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
Search ›-
Zelensky Reveals Massive Russian Barrage Amid Musk’s Starshield RestrictionOct 25, 2026 at 02:19 PM EDT Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched thousands of attacks this past week before Elon Musk’s SpaceX restored its Starlink and Starshield satellite internet service in the country… -
How Trump’s Hero Winston Churchill Would Handle Putin and UkraineOct 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT When Donald Trump wanted to cut Keir Starmer down to size in March, he reached for his hero. "This is not Winston Churchill," the president said in the Oval Office, after Britain initially refused to let U.S… -
Russia given first championships since Ukraine invasionWeightlifting was first included as an Olympic sport in the 1896 Games in Athens Moscow will host the 2030 World Weightlifting Championships - the first time an Olympic federation has chosen to stage a global event in Russia since the… -
Ukrainian President Zelensky confirms access to Starshield has been restoredAfter a week of slow Starlink speeds hindering Ukrainian military operations, the Ukrainian defense ministry announced on Saturday that full access to the military grade internet service has been restored. Voter turnout is already high in… -
Russia says it will open humanitarian corridor to Ukrainian townRussia says it will open a humanitarian corridor to the occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky, where people have been eating weeds and pickles to survive while trapped by minefields, shelling and drones. Russia says it will open humanitarian… - Zelensky Rules Out Land Swap With Russia, Says Lifting Sanctions Before Putin Talks Would Weaken UkraineSanctions relief before talks would weaken Ukraine's hand Zelensky opposed lifting sanctions on Russia ahead of a possible trilateral meeting involving the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and the United States. He said the sanctions were…
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Ukraine war briefing: Trilateral peace talks with Russia to restart, says ZelenskyyUkraine will not discuss limits to its armed forces or enforced neutrality at November meeting, president says. What we know on day 1,706A trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow will take place in November aiming to restart… -
Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire dealAl Jazeera Trump lauds Melania over Russia-Ukraine localised ceasefire deal US President Donald Trump praised First Lady Melania Trump, saying she was ‘better than our professionals’ following her diplomatic efforts towards a localised… -
Melania Trump's advisor reveals how she bridged Putin, Zelenskyy to broker frontline Ukraine truceMarc Beckman, a senior advisor to Melania Trump, joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss first lady Melania Trump's humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. Beckman details how the first lady successfully brokered a ceasefire in Oleshky, allowing… -
Ukraine, US, Russia expected to hold trilateral talks in November, says ZelenskyUkrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that Ukraine, the United States and Russia are expected to hold trilateral talks in November, in a bid to revive negotiations that have remained deadlocked. “We are ready to talk. If… -
Zelensky says trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia meeting to take place in NovemberUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday said that a trilateral meeting between Kyiv, Washington and Moscow would take place in November aiming to restart stalled peace talks. “We are ready to talk. If it’s a territorial issue, it… -
Zelensky celebrates as Ukraine hits Putin's war factory with British missile and Starlink returnsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is toasting a successful victory after his forceslanded a direct hit on Putin’s war factory using British missiles, according to reports. Video shared from the battlefield appears to show a major…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions