Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.5median
140230
Median 189.5Middle half 176.8 – 200.8
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Will legislation establishing the Canada Strong Fund become law in 2026?
The odds
20%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 20% on Oct 19, 20% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 15¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 18.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Canada Strong Fund
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Budget Lands Two Days After the U.S. Midterms as the Watchdog Says Ottawa’s Books Hide Its BorrowingFinance Minister François-Philippe Champagne announced in Question Period that the federal budget will be tabled on November 5, two days after the U.S. midterm elections. Finance Canada also announced the date. The same morning… -
Ottawa’s accounting obscures true scale of borrowing, PBO says ahead of 2026 budgetParliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan, shown in Ottawa in June, pointed out in her report that the federal debt is growing twice as fast as the growth in deficits.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan… -
OPINION: Access to sport shouldn’t depend on where you live in B.C.Published 5:23 pm Friday, October 16, 2026 By Rob Newman, president and CEO of Sport BC In communities across British Columbia, sport is about much more than competition. It’s where children build friendships, volunteers bring neighbours… -
OPINION: Access to sport in B.C. shouldn’t depend on where you livePublished 5:23 pm Friday, October 16, 2026 By Rob Newman, president and CEO of Sport BC In communities across British Columbia, sport is about much more than competition. It’s where children build friendships, volunteers bring neighbours… -
‘No to the Nine’Welcome back to the Evening Brief! Prime Minister Mark Carney stumped for Canada on a last-ditch tour Thursday, urging supporters to not only vote to stay in Confederation but to also reject nine other questions put on the ballot by… -
Ottawa opens $430M in apprenticeship funding for skilled tradesThe federal government is opening applications for more than $430 million in union-led apprenticeship training, temporarily raising its share of training equipment costs to 70 per cent as it pushes to train workers for homes and major… -
Opinion | Why Mark Carney needs to think small in the upcoming federal budgetPrime Minister Mark Carney participates in an announcement for the new federal agency Build Canada Homes, in Ottawa, on Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025. The federal budget expected next month would be a good time for Mark Carney to start thinking…
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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Feb 25, 2028even chance by
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- Before Oct 1, 202737%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions