When will Canada gain EU associate status?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $1.1K traded · $448 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

17%Before 2028

Before 202817%
Before 202917%▼ 2

How the odds have moved

Before 2028: 16% on Oct 20, 17% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2028	17%		15¢	19¢	$5.26	3.0K
Before 2029	17%	▼ 2	16¢	18¢	$5.56	3.7K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Canada, Canada-EU

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Canada, EU working on digital trade agreement ahead of summit next weekToronto Star · 2 days agoThe flags of Canada and the European Union are shown before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang OTTAWA - Canada and the EU are…
Trump started a trade war with Canada. GOP candidates became casualties.The Washington Post · 11 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. High tariffs on…
In Canada: Summer Walker, Bebe Rexha to Accept Awards at Billboard Canada Women in Music 2026Billboard · 43 h agoAlso this week: Drake finances a new album for a Canadian rapper and Tate McRae's Victoria's Secret performance draws criticism. Billboard Canada has announced some more major global names for Billboard Canada Women In Music, where Cardi B…
The top 25 modern golf courses in Canada, rankedYahoo Sports · 16 h agoWelcome to the Golfweek's Best 2026 ranking of the top 25 modern golf courses in Canada. Golfweek for many years ranked Canadian courses, but during COVID there wasn't much movement on the lists of best modern and classic courses in the…
US ambassador softens accusations of Canadian interference in midtermsPOLITICO · 44 h agoIn an interview, Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said the U.S. had not determined whether there had, in fact, been any interference by Canadian officials. Pete Hoekstra, then-candidate for U.S. ambassador to Canada, takes his seat for a Senate…
Royal Carribean cruise to the Bahamas went to Canada insteadNew York Post · 28 h agoThis was one confused cruise. More than 5,000 passengers expecting a week of fun in the sun in the Bahamas instead found themselves headed for chilly Canada after stormy weather forced their Royal Caribbean cruise to change course. The…
Canada inflict back-to-back losses on EnglandBBC Sport · 38 h agoBack-to-back losses for Red Roses against Canada Tries: Omokhuale, De Goede 3, Bauder Cons: De Goede 3 Tries: Feaunati, Cokayne, Sing Cons: Harrison, Sing Pens: Harrison England suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time in a decade…
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceNewsweek · 45 h agoOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief…
Trump rolls back some Canada tariffs as midterm election approachesThe Washington Post · 2 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The Trump…
Trump administration cancels some Canada tariffs, Sen. Susan Collins saysNBC News · 2 days agoThe Trump administration has granted tariff exemptions on some Canadian products, Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who’s facing a tough re-election battle in Maine, said Friday. The move is an implicit acknowledgement that President Donald…
England suffer back-to-back losses to CanadaBBC Sport · 42 h agoWatch highlights as England were beaten by Canada for the second time in as many weeks, losing 31-22 in their WXV Global Series match in Ottawa, Canada. Up Next. Evans' pride at reaching 50 Wales caps. Video, 00:00:30Evans' pride at…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe Washington Post, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.1K (6,632 contracts)

At stake$448

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt an agreement establishing Canada as an EU associate member or an equivalent new formal institutional status after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions