US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)
1.69%median
-12%12%
Median 1.69%
Install
Will California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
The odds
35%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 35% on Oct 20, 35% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 34¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 30.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California
Search ›-
California cities dominate ranking of riskiest places for driversCalifornia drivers are getting a dangerous reality check, with six Golden State cities ranking among the 10 riskiest places to drive in America. San Diego came in second nationwide, with 28.2 crashes per 1,000 drivers, while Los Angeles… -
Southern California set for mid-week cooldown before HalloweenCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS Miami News Sunday Morning CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA News This Morning Sunday 8am -
Pleasant fall weekend ahead in Southern CaliforniaCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 6am WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Saturday 8am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 6am CBS News Miami This Morning 9am WCCO News Saturday Morning 8am CBS News New… -
The California climate move-out10/23/2026 07:30 PM EDT With help from Noah Baustin and Alex Nieves Extreme weather could force more Californians to leave their homes. | Ethan Swope/AP PACK YOUR BAGS: More wildfires, greater flooding, longer and more extreme heat waves… -
Northern California families find ways to save on Halloween costs while keeping traditions aliveOctober 24, 2026 / 10:35 PM PDT / CBS Sacramento With Halloween just around the corner, families are looking for ways to keep the spooky season fun without letting the cost of pumpkins, costumes and decorations add up. At Rickey Ranch… -
SMU Explodes in Second Half to Rout California 59-20The SMU Mustangs delivered a dominant second-half performance on Saturday, defeating the California Golden Bears 59-20 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. After a competitive opening half, SMU erupted for 42 unanswered points after halftime to… -
California abortion rights advocate sweats Biden drag on House racesJodi Hicks, president of Planned Parenthood California, indicated Democrats were taking a big risk in losing the House if they stuck with President Joe Biden. Jodi Hicks, an ally of the vice president and a major player in the capital city… -
Sylmar celebrates California's first-ever barbering program inside juvenile hallCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Sylmar… -
America’s billionaire boom: Florida gains on New York as California dominates top 10Florida is minting billionaires at a blistering pace — and is now just 15 deep pockets away from overtaking the Empire State. But ahead of No. 2 New York and No. 3 Florida, California still reigns supreme as the land of billionaires with… -
LA’s top federal prosecutor says California elections already in jeopardyLos Angeles’ top federal prosecutor fears noncitizens could be illegally casting ballots in California as dozens of polling places opened across LA County Saturday, warning the state could be trying to run out the clock before disputed… -
The Californian whose pumpkin patch dream took root in FifeThe American tradition of pumpkin-picking has become an autumnal tradition for many Scots When Cameron Laird introduced pumpkin-picking to her husband John's farm 28 years ago, she was trying to bring a treasured piece of her American… -
DOJ's voter fraud investigation continues as California early voting centers openCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. DOJ's voter…
Related markets
All housing ›Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
60%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%60%
- Falls to 6.5%26%
- Falls to 6.25%24%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
705,678median
670,000750,000
Median 705,678Middle half 701,441 – 709,915
US building permits for October (October 2026)
1.38median
1.201.65
Median 1.38Middle half 1.33 – 1.43
Will Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
90%chance
US new home sales for September (September 2026)
642,000median
580,000760,000
Median 642,000Middle half 623,793 – 675,862
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions