Will Tristan Buckmaster sue OpenAI or Bubeck? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $45 traded · $42 at stake · prices read 8 h ago

The odds

11%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 14% on Oct 19, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	11%	▼ 1	7¢	15¢	$6.67	408

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Tristan Buckmaster

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The inside story behind OpenAI’s million-dollar math proofScientific American · 3 days agoAI’s solution to the Navier-Stokes problem, and the details of how it happened, preview a chaotic future for math—and the world By Joseph Howlett edited by Lee Billings Room 109 of New York University’s Warren Weaver Hall wasn’t ready for…
Texas Sues OpenAI, Altman Over ChatGPT Safety Claims@law360 · 2 days agoThe Texas attorney general's office sued OpenAI and its chief executive Sam Altman in state court Friday, alleging the company breached consumer protection laws by unleashing a chatbot that often gives harmful advice and is addictive to…
Chatbot AI Service Comparison: OpenAI ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini (for CRM Actions)DEV Community · 25 h agoShort answer: Choose OpenAI ChatGPT for dynamic casual dialogue, Claude for explainable complex reasoning, and Gemini when minimal-response latency dominates; keep all three behind one CRM action contract. The boundary is simple: the model…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 26 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAI@kbtxnews · 2 days agoTEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations…
Texas AG Ken Paxton sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claimsHouston Chronicle · 2 days agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing technology company OpenAI for allegedly failing to protect Texans from the harms of using ChatGPT. Paxton speaks during a news conference with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Houston on…
Harvard mathematicians debate whether AI proofs need human understanding after OpenAI’s Navier-Stokes claimCrypto Briefing · 3 days agoOpenAI's claimed progress on a Millennium Prize Problem has Harvard faculty asking whether a correct proof is worth much if no person truly grasps it OpenAI official logo (public domain, Wikimedia Commons) — CryptoBriefing brand treatment…
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessThe Verge · 2 days agoAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to…
OpenAI agents discussed ways to escape their sandbox on public wikiArs OpenForum · 46 h agoIf OpenAI’s public characterization is substantially accurate, its agents engaged in behavior they were not supposed to perform and escaped relevant controls. The agents subsequently interacted with ... OpenAI agents discussed ways to…
Paxton Sues OpenAI And Sam Altman Over Suicide Claims, Seeks ChatGPT Ban For Texas Kidswbap.com · 38 h agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) sued OpenAI and CEO Sam Altman on Friday, accusing them of misleading Texans about ChatGPT’s safety and asking a court to bar the chatbot for minors in the state. The 67-page petition names six OpenAI…
OpenAI Opens ChatGPT Advertising to Nigerian BusinessesProduct Reviews · 3 days agoThe rollout introduces conversational monetization to one of Africa’s most vibrant digital economies, granting local organizations direct access to a rapidly expanding user base that relies on generative AI for daily productivity…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 34 h agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTristan Buckmaster, OpenAI, Sébastien Bubeck

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$45 (408 contracts)

At stake$42

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI or Sébastien Bubeck before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions