Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory (Oct 25, 2026)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closed Sun 11:06 PM ET · $10.6K today · $23.4K traded · $10.4K at stake

Settled Between 3% and 5%

The last odds before it closed

3.99%median

✓ Lula da Silva, ≥1%99%▲ 85
✓ Lula da Silva, ≥3%98%▲ 93
Lula da Silva, ≥5%2%▼ 2
Lula da Silva, ≥7%2%
Lula da Silva, ≥9%2%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Last odds	Contracts
✓ Lula da Silva, ≥1%	99%	15.5K
✓ Lula da Silva, ≥3%	98%	7.9K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥5%	2%	3.9K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥7%	2%	30.5K
✗ Lula da Silva, ≥9%	2%	1.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Brazil, Lula

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Brazil’s Lula wins shock reelectionsemafor.com · 8 h agoA tougher message on crime, a savvy social media strategy, and a welfare boost helped the 80-year-old leftist secure an unprecedented fourth term. Brazil’s Lula wins shock reelection Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won…
Brazil's President Lula defeats BolsonaroBBC · 26 h agoThe Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, ... Use BBC.com or the new BBC App to…
Brazil election: Lula supporters celebrate victorybbc.com · 19 h agoBrazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth term, beating right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. Tears and hugs as Lula supporters celebrate victory
Brazil: Lula Wins Historic Fourth Presidential TermDeadline · 6 h agoBrazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva staged a dramatic election comeback Sunday night, beating far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro to clinch a historic fourth term in office. Lula took 51.79% of the vote. The win makes the…
Brazil's Lula wins presidential election in runoff voteCNBC · 17 h agoCNBC’s Sri Jegarajah and JP Ong discuss what comes next for Brazil after Lula da Silva’s runoff victory. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get ... Brazil's Lula wins presidential…
Trump Already Has a Victory in Lula’s BrazilNewsweek · 6 h agoOct 26, 2026 at 05:31 AM EDT It is easy to see leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprising reelection in Brazil—which defied polls, prediction markets and history—as a major blow to President Donald Trump's so-called "Donroe Doctrine."…
Markets brace for uncertainty after Lula win in Brazilsemafor.com · 6 h agoBrazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won reelection in a stunning turnaround. A tougher message on crime, a savvy social media strategy, and a boost to welfare payments helped the 80-year-old leftist secure an unprecedented fourth…
Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil elections comebackBBC News · 9 h agoBrazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term in office in a dramatic comeback over his right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Left-wing leader Lula took 51.79% of votes, becoming the first president since the return…
Brazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth termNPR · 10 h agoBrazil's 80-year-old left-wing President Lula defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in a bitterly contested runoff and a stunning comeback. Brazil's left-wing President Lula elected for fourth term Brazil's 80-year-old left-wing President Lula defeats…
Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comebackBBC News · 16 h agoBrazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth term in office in a dramatic comeback over his right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Left-wing leader Lula took 51.79% of votes, becoming the first president since the return…
Brazil election: President Lula da Silva beats Flavio BolsonaroBBC Newsround · 17 h agoPresident Lula celebrates his victory Brazil - it's the largest country in the continent of South America. It is home to the Amazon rainforest - the so-called 'lungs of the world', because of the role it plays in absorbing carbon dioxide…
How 'Lula's Army' WhatsApp chat helped turn Brazil election aroundBBC News · 3 h agoA WhatsApp channel created to support Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election campaign is being credited by allies with helping deliver one of the most unlikely comebacks in recent Brazilian politics. Brazil's left-wing president had been…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onTribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

Trading closesOct 25, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$23.4K (58,870 contracts)

Today$10.6K

This week$21.2K

At stake$10.4K

In the news273 headlines today, 1,106 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions