Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory (Oct 25, 2026)
13%Lula da Silva, ≥1%
-1%11%
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Brazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro margin of victory (Oct 25, 2026)
The odds
3.27%median
-1%13%
Median 3.27%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.34% on Oct 20, 3.27% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥1% | 74% | ▼ 8 | 70¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 3.1K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥3% | 55% | ▼ 6 | 52¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 3.7K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥4% | 38% | ▼ 3 | 34¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 2.6K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥5% | 26% | ▼ 4 | 22¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 8.6K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥6% | 21% | ▼ 2 | 16¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥7% | 14% | ▲ 2 | 12¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 3.5K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 8.3K | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥11% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 1.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Flávio Bolsonaro, Brazil
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Brazil's Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro trade barbs in 1st debate only days before presidential runoffBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Brazil’s President… -
Cuban Ambassador in Brazil Downplays Concerns Amid Flávio Bolsonaro's Potential Win: "Our Historical Ties Are Resilient"Monday, October 19, 2026 by Emily Vargas On Monday, Cuba's ambassador to Brazil, Víctor Manuel Cairo Palomo, sought to maintain a calm demeanor ahead of Brazil's upcoming presidential runoff on October 25. Flávio Bolsonaro is the leading… -
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Supreme Court receives new probe into Flávio BolsonaroOn October 10, after the first round of the presidential election, a court in Rio Grande do Sul authorized access to Tomaz’s confidential data. Emails uncovered in the investigation showed Flávio registered as the “master user” of a bank… -
'And my island?' - Richarlison accuses Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of seizing his private islandTottenham Hotspur forward Richarlison has sparked a major political storm in his native Brazil by accusing presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of illegally seizing his private island. The 29-year-old striker claims the senator, who is… -
Brazil’s Constitutional Promise and the Rhetoric of Redemocratization: What Flávio Bolsonaro’s Agenda Means for the 1988 Constitution—Daniel Capecchi Nunes, Professor of Administrative and Constitutional Law, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; and Isabela Almeida do Amaral, PhD in Public Law, State University of Rio de Janeiro and Associate Researcher, Brazilian… -
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula Tied in Runoff Poll“Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are locked in a tie less than a week ahead of Brazil’s runoff election, according to a new poll,” Bloomberg reports. “Bolsonaro would take 50.3% to Lula’s 49.7%… -
Brazil’s Lula Holds First and Only Debate with Flávio Bolsonaro Ahead of Presidential RunoffFlávio Bolsonaro: “The PT, the Workers’ Party, has been governing Brazil for 20 years, and nothing has changed or improved for you when it comes to healthcare.” Many of the hundreds of thousands who marched peacefully said there was too… -
Lula da Silva Beats Flavio Bolsonaro in Debate Ahead of RunoffOctober 19, 2026 Hour: 8:29 am On Sunday, Brazilian President and re-election candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and far-right opposition candidate Flavio Bolsonaro faced off for the first time in a presidential debate. Just one week… -
Lula y Flávio Bolsonaro intercambian críticas en 1er debate antes del balotaje presidencialLos analistas que esperaban que el mandatario en funciones y el hijo del expresidente Jair Bolsonaro intentaran atraer a los pocos votantes indecisos quedaron decepcionados. Sus intercambios acalorados, que a menudo incluyeron a algunos de… -
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Face Off in First DebateOctober 18, 2026 Hour: 12:23 pm Lula Flávio Bolsonaro debate begins Sunday on Band as both candidates clash over Brazil’s future one week before the October 25 runoff. Related: Lula Signs Constitutional Amendment Reducing Brazil’s Workweek… - BRAZIL ELECTION SHOCK: Flávio Bolsonaro Outperforms Polls, Leads Lula With 85% Counted As Race Heads To RunoffBrazil’s presidential election is headed to a runoff, with conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro significantly outperforming pre-election polls and leading President Lula as votes are counted. With roughly 85% counted, Bolsonaro has 48.5%…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.