Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
189.3median
140230
Median 189.3Middle half 177.0 – 200.9
Install
Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
The odds
65%Before Jan 10, 2027
- Before Jan 10, 202765%▲ 6
- Before Mar 1, 202773%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 10, 2027: 60% on Oct 20, 65% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 4 PM ETBefore Jan 10, 2027: 60% → 65%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 10, 2027 | 65% | ▲ 6 | 26¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 299 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 73% | ▲ 1 | 71¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 6.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Jair Bolsonaro, Pardon
Search ›-
‘Bolso shows all signs of fascism’: the journalist who predicted Brazil’s future – and paid the ultimate priceDom Phillips warned that Jair Bolsonaro would make life more dangerous for reporters and the Amazon rainforest, and that his sons were even more extreme “Bolso shows all signs of fascism, as do his supporters,” the murdered British… -
Silicon Valley’s boogeyman in BrazilThe must-read briefing on the people, power moves, policy battles and market shifts defining what’s next in global technology. By EVA HARTOG, SASHA ISSENBERG, SAM SUTTON, CALDER MCHUGH, CHRISTINE MUI and BRENDAN BORDELON 10/23/2026 06:55… -
Brazil runoff election resultsLive results from the presidential election second round, state by state. No votes counted yet. Results will be described here once counting begins. Bigger circles indicate greater lead. What we're watching: At 80, leftist President Luiz… -
Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynastyRIO DE JANEIRO — Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil could prolong the career of a political giant—or usher in a new generation of a political dynasty. Voter energy has surged ahead of the runoff, with rallies for each candidate drawing… -
Tens of thousands of Lula supporters rally on eve of Brazilian election runoffNearly 159 million people to head to polls on Sunday in battle between leftwing incumbent and Flávio Bolsonaro Tens of thousands of supporters of Brazil’s leftwing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, have streamed on to Rio’s most famous… -
‘We can’t let the far right take power again’: Lula voters in final push before Brazil runoffIn bellwether Minais Gerais, with polls about even, president’s supporters are striving to win over those who abstained or voted for Flavio Bolsonaro Naiara Boroni, Nikolas Domingues and Jodersson Diego live in the same city and do not… -
Bolsonaro Lead Over Lula Shrinks as Trump Stays on Brazil Election SidelineOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to a statistical tie ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil, while President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro's most… -
‘This is a lethal threat’: Indigenous groups fear Bolsonaro’s hold on voters in Brazil’s Amazon townsFar-right presidential candidate is popular among those who believe more mining can help revitalise local economies It was the night before the first round of Brazil’s presidential election and Rosimari Monteiro was so excited she couldn’t… -
Brazil court orders government to provide transportation for Indigenous voters in Sunday’s runoffby GABRIELA SÁ PESSOA, Associated Press 10/22/26 08:11 PM ET “Geographic distance, combined with a lack of accessible transportation, can make a formally recognized right impossible to exercise in practice,” the ruling said. The ruling… -
Lula says rival should be disqualified over alleged Meta interference ahead of Brazil voteBrazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's campaign has requested the disqualification of right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in the lead up to the final round of the presidential election on Sunday over alleged interference by… - Lula has defined Brazil’s left for decades. Can his movement survive another Bolsonaro?When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva walked out of the Federal Police headquarters in Curitiba, Brazil, on November 8, 2019, hundreds of supporters were waiting for him. Many had been there, on and off, for much of the 580 days he spent behind…
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Gov. Gavin Newsom issues 27 pardons, 30 commutations in sweeping clemency actionsOctober 23, 2026 / 11:55 AM PDT / CBS Sacramento Gov. Gavin Newsom granted 27 pardons and 30 commutations of sentences, including that of a man convicted of taking part in a deadly home invasion in Sacramento County, in a series of…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions