DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
27%median
21.6%29%
Median 27%Middle half 25.3% – 27.65%
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Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET)
The odds
61%United States
- United States61%
- China26%
- France5%
- South Korea4%
- United Arab Emirates4%
How the odds have moved
United States: 61% on Oct 19, 61% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 61% | 57¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 320 | |
| China | 26% | 22¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 402 | |
| France | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 398 | |
| South Korea | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 398 | |
| United Arab Emirates | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 398 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AM ET
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.