Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year? (Before 2027)

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $14.8K traded · $4.6K at stake · prices read 20 min ago

The odds

11%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 7% on Oct 20, 11% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	11%	▼ 1	10¢	11¢	$9.09	141.2K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Chinese AI

Search ›

Washington’s DeepSeek ban may deter US firms from adopting Chinese AI models: expertsThe Star · 28 h agoThe US government’s latest ban on Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek could have a chilling effect on the wider American business community and deter companies from adopting low-cost Chinese AI models, industry experts say…
US-China AI rivalry: Can Trump and Xi agree on rules for the artificial intelligence race?CNA · 2 days agoThe United States and China are racing for artificial intelligence dominance, but the technology's growing risks may also require them to work together. As US President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in…
Did Texas use artificial intelligence to call fourth-down play against Florida? Longhorns AD clarifies reportOutKick · 2 days agoArch Manning 2026 season at Texas has far underperformed what many expected out of a potential top-10 draft pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. Ryan Leaf speaks with Craig Carton about Manning's season so far. On the same day that the University…
Forced to pick, Grok’s AI model chooses Republicans. OpenAI’s picks Democrats.TechCrunch · 41 h agoBuy One Founder Summit Ticket, Get a Second for Free. Register now. Most AI chatbots won’t outright tell you who to vote for, but some of the models behind them will. A new study found that when forced to choose in this year’s upcoming…
Moonshot AI Scales Back Cyberattack Capabilities in New Chinese AI ModelBlogger · 33 h agoThe Beijing-based company announced the safeguards on Saturday while unveiling Kimi K3.1 Pro, which it describes as its most capable model in the three-trillion-parameter class of open-weight artificial intelligence systems. Moonshot plans…
OpenAI now trains its frontier AI models with no internet accessThe Verge · 2 days agoAI agents can still communicate without a network connection, OpenAI found. OpenAI paused training its frontier AI models in September, after disclosing several incidents in which its AI agents broke out of their testing environments to…
Chinese AI model Kimi K3.1 Pro is closing in on Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5The Decoder · 2 days agoMoonshot AI's new reasoning model Kimi K3.1 Pro lands at number four on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, just 3 points behind the top proprietary models. Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, a post-trained…
Jack Dorsey’s Block made an AI model that talks to you like an awkward new friendThe Verge · 2 days agoYou have got to listen to these conversations with Block’s new Dessa AI model. Jack Dorsey’s Block announced an AI model called Dessa that’s trained “from scratch on nothing but human conversation,” and to show off the model, Block shared…
China AI Model Stocks’ $150 Billion Drop Shows No Sign of Easingmint · 3 days agoThere’s no end in sight for the brutal selloff in China’s artificial intelligence model developer stocks, with competition growing ever more heated and the threat of rival listings next year. MiniMax Group Inc. and Z.AI Co., also known as…
Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular CareEuropean Medical Journal · 29 h agoArtificial intelligence in cardiovascular medicine advances diagnostics, risk prediction, and clinical decision support. This site is intended for healthcare professionals Artificial Intelligence Advances Precision Cardiovascular Care…
Artificial Intelligence: A Blessing or a Curse?The Good Men Project · 31 h ago“Generative AI is one of the most exciting and powerful technologies of our time, but it also presents new challenges and risks that we need to address thoughtfully and proactively.” Is every great invention a blessing or a curse? What if…
Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligenceGrand Forks Herald · 33 h agoWhile the promise of AI dominates headlines, the mounting societal and environmental risks demand a profound and immediate slowdown. Letter: Delay the deployment of artificial intelligence While the promise of AI dominates headlines, the…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$14.8K (141,239 contracts)

This week$5.7K

At stake$4.6K

In the news43 headlines today, 741 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions