Benito Juárez, Mexico City mayoral election winner? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Jun 5, 2028 · $3 today · $4 traded · $3 at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

87%PAN

PAN87%
Morena10%▼ 1
MC4%

How the odds have moved

PAN: 87% on Oct 19, 87% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
PAN	87%		84¢	90¢	$1.11	4.00
Morena	10%	▼ 1	6¢	13¢	$7.69
MC	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Benito Juárez, Mexico City

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Mexico City Borough Guards Day of the DeadThe Rio Times · 4 h agoMarigolds are going up at the cemetery gates in Azcapotzalco, a borough in north-western Mexico City, and this year the Navy is helping to guard the crowds. The borough has opened a security operation for Day of the Dead, the holiday on 1…
Viral video of ‘Lady Gringa’ accosting taco workers outrages Mexico CityThe Washington Post · 3 days agoIt was an off-the-cuff comment Joe Mitchell made to President Donald Trump during a Republican campaign rally Thursday. “We don’t ride bicycles in Iowa. We ride Harley-Davidsons, isn’t that true,” said Mitchell, a former Trump…
Belize represents at Mesoamerica Project meeting in Mexico City@belizemedia · 4 days agoBelize News and Opinion on www.breakingbelizenews.com Belize represents at Mesoamerica Project meeting in Mexico City By Zoila Palma: Belize’s Ambassador to Mexico, Amalia Mai, represented the country at the Meeting of Presidential…
Demonstration Alert: Multiple Protests in Mexico City on October 21mx.usembassy.gov · 5 days agoLocation: Multiple locations in Mexico City Event: Multiple protests are planned in Mexico City on Wednesday, October 21. Traffic disruptions and road closures are expected around the Senate, Paseo de la Reforma, Centro Médico Nacional…
Early voting underway as Gov. Hochul and Bruce Blakeman campaign in governor's raceCBS News · 10 h agoVoters across New York are weighing issues ranging from child care costs to housing affordability as Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman make their final push on the campaign trail. CBS News New York's…
Latin America’s MAGA wave is widening Trump’s political and military reachThe Washington Post · 2 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. MEXICO CITY — When…
Ilhan Omar’s fundraising spikes after federal raid on her homeThe Washington Post · 3 days agoRep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minnesota) raised more than $1.5 million in campaign funds on the day and day after the federal government searched her home in Washington this month, according to a Washington Post analysis. The haul was part of nearly…
Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum announces members of her cabinet in Mexico CityThe Lufkin Daily News · 6 days agoThe Lufkin Daily News - Fast food just got faster with new White Castle kiosk at Murphy Express - Burke man suffers possibly life-threatening injuries in motorcycle crash on Highway 69 - Woman given 15-year sentence for hurting âMiracle…
To stop the cartels, Trump must impose a territorial price on Mexico CityWashington Examiner · 7 days agoWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
Mexico Day of the DeadGoshen News · 42 h agoGoshen News A vendor carries a bundle of cempasÃºchil, or marigold flowers at the Mercado de Jamaica where the blooms are sold for Day of the Dead offerings, in Mexico City, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. How will you vote on the constitutional…
COP31 Host Urges NATO Nations to Spend More on Climate Than DefenseOilPrice.com · 23 h agoU.S. Dips Into Strategic Oil Reserve Again Amid Supply Disruptions The UK government has re-approved… Soaring oil tanker rates are… Trump and Carney have traded… COP31 will be held in the southern Turkish province of Antalya from 9th –…
What’s On in Latin America This Week: Events, Dates and DeadlinesThe Rio Times · 29 h agoLatin America · What’s On Your Latin America week ahead for 26 October–1 November 2026 opens with the result of Brazil’s presidential runoff and ends with Formula 1 in Mexico City and the Day of the Dead. In between come central bank…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onInstituto Electoral de la Ciudad de México

Trading closesJun 5, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$4 (4 contracts)

Today$3

This week$4

At stake$3

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes PAN wins the 2027 Benito Juárez borough mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions