Brazil Presidential Election
61%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%▲ 44
- Flávio Bolsonaro39%▼ 44
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Bedford mayoral election winner? (2027)
The odds
34%Liberal Democrats
- Liberal Democrats34%▲ 1
- Reform UK24%▲ 1
- Conservative14%▲ 1
- Green11%▲ 1
- Labour10%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Liberal Democrats: 34% on Oct 19, 34% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrats | 34% | ▲ 1 | 30¢ | 38¢ | $2.63 | |
| Reform UK | 24% | ▲ 1 | 20¢ | 28¢ | $3.57 | |
| Conservative | 14% | ▲ 1 | 10¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | |
| Green | 11% | ▲ 1 | 7¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | |
| Labour | 10% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Bedford, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK
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Exclusive: Rep. Ryan Zinke’s SEAL PAC Releases Fierce Ad Comparing Socialist, Communist Dictators to Liberal DemocratsRep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT), who founded SEAL PAC, released a fierce ad that compares communist and socialist dictators to several liberal, Democrat lawmakers. Zinke warned that the United States faces “a war of ideologies” from communism and… -
Sleaze Watch: Liberal Democrat Suspended for Filming Schoolchildren.A left-wing Liberal Democrat politician in England has been suspended after recording minors outside a primary (elementary) school and flatly refusing official requests to delete the footage from social media. The National Pulse covers the… -
Reform UK Wales slated for 'shameful' Aberfan videoThere has been an outpouring of anger after Reform UK Wales posted an Aberfan ‘tribute’ video described as ‘opportunistic’ and ‘shameful’. The clip opens with Jenner mentioning Aberfan but as the video progresses she begins to promote… -
Corby Liberal Democrats launch 'positive plan' for town to become 'powerhouse' of North NorthamptonshirePositive Plan for Corby sets out the Lib Dems’ comprehensive blueprint to continue Corby's ‘exceptional growth’. The authors say the plan is written from the ‘town's point of view’ assessing what ‘Corby needs’ bringing together residents… -
Reform UK's £40billion plan of 'emergency cuts' to save 'broke Britain'Mr Jenrick is calling on the Chancellor to use £18billion of savings to hike the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000. He argues this would “leave the average household £1,000 better off”. He said: “We can’t go on like this. Britain is… -
Labour surge to their largest poll lead since the general election - with Tories ahead of Reform UK as Kemi Badenoch's popularity growsLabour has surged to its largest poll lead since the 2024 general election as the party continues to enjoy a 'bounce' under Andy Burnham's leadership. The latest Ipsos survey puts Labour on 32 per cent support, which is up five percentage… -
Reform UK's Suella Braverman claims massive taxpayer-funded water bill at home equal to 18 baths a dayReform MP Suella Braverman ran up a huge taxpayer-funded water bill at her family home – equivalent to 18 bathfuls a day. The former Home Secretary’s family got through 1,504 litres of water daily at her £1.2million four-bedroom pad in a… - Reform UK’s support collapses in major boost for Burnham, new poll showsThe latest Ipsos poll would give Andy Burnham a majority for Labour in a general election Support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has collapsed, giving Kemi Badenoch’s Tories their biggest lead over them since the general election in 2024 and…
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Reform UK fined for failing to declare it was publisher of campaigns materialParty given additional penalty by Electoral Commission for not paying original fine on time Reform UK has been fined more than £2,000 for failing to declare it was the publisher of campaign material seen by voters – including an additional… -
Reform UK moves to block ‘Council of Sanctuary’ status for HertfordshireReform UK is leading efforts to stop Hertfordshire becoming a Council of Sanctuary for refugees. A dozen county councillors have formally called in the controversial Liberal Democrat cabinet decision to join the City of Sanctuary Local… -
Reform UK Donor’s Former Business Links to Iranian Foundation Revealed in French Court DocumentsA French arbitration judgment has revealed that a British businessman who has become a financial supporter of Nigel Farage previously invested in an Iranian telecommunications venture partly owned by a religious foundation subsequently… -
Jane Dodds standing down as Welsh Liberal Democrats leaderJane Dodds has been a Senedd member since 2021 and became Welsh Lib Dem leader in 2017 Jane Dodds has announced she will stand down as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Dodds said she would remain the party's only Member of the Senedd…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions