Fed Decision in October?
93%No change
- No change93%▲ 5
- 25 bps increase6%▼ 5
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026
The odds
$6.79median
$6.10$7.40
Median $6.79Middle half $6.72 – $6.89
How the odds have moved
Median: $6.78 on Oct 20, $6.79 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.2 trillion | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 373 | ||
| Above $6.3 trillion | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 252 | ||
| Above $6.4 trillion | 98% | 96¢ | $1.02 | 665 | ||
| Above $6.5 trillion | 95% | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 201 | |
| Above $6.6 trillion | 91% | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 317 | |
| Above $6.7 trillion | 83% | 79¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 900 | |
| Above $6.8 trillion | 46% | ▲ 1 | 42¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 770 |
| Above $6.9 trillion | 24% | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 704 | |
| Above $7.0 trillion | 21% | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 687 | |
| Above $7.1 trillion | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 520 | |
| Above $7.2 trillion | 13% | ▲ 2 | 10¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 3.5K |
| Above $7.3 trillion | 10% | 7¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 11.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal ReserveRealClearMarkets Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal Reserve -
West Virginia home prices outpace national growth, says Federal Reserve reportWest Virginia’s unemployment rate fell to 4% in September, below the national average, but year-over-year job growth remained flat as home prices rose 8% in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing national growth, according to the Federal… -
Nexo: Federal Reserve Decisions Put Crypto Market Recovery to the TestAccording to Nexo’s analysis, bitcoin’s price trajectory depends largely on Federal Reserve policy and upcoming inflation trends. Continued growth could be sustained if interest rates are held steady or reduced, whereas hawkish monetary… -
US dollar slips as Treasury yields fall ahead of Federal Reserve meetingReviewed by Rami Haddad, Editor-in-Chief · Last update: 2026.10.22 The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, October 22, as declining Treasury yields reduced support for the greenback, while investors assessed the… -
Satire: Federal Reserve warns that ‘walking-around money’ could soon exceed $50The following piece is satire and should not be misconstrued as actual reporting. Any resemblance to a student, staff or faculty member is coincidental. Earlier today, high-ranking members of the United States Federal Reserve issued a… -
Explained: What the U.S. Federal Reserve does, and why it matters to AustraliaThe Federal Reserve, often called “the Fed”, is the central bank of the United States. Like the Reserve Bank of Australia, its best-known job is setting interest rates. But because the U.S. economy is the largest in the world and the U.S… - axe-maker-gallery - Federal Reserve Bank of BostonSparks fly as a blacksmith does his work at Maine axe-maker Brant & Cochran. Steve Osemwenkhae/Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Mark Ferguson co-founded axe-maker Brant & Cochran, which is located in South Portland, Maine. Steve…
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The Federal Reserve at a Time of UncertaintyAs if all this uncertainty were not enough, scientists are confidently predicting that a Super El Niño current this year will seriously disrupt global weather patterns. In turn, that could lead to major disruptions in the world food supply… - Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh Outlines Key Policy OutlookOpen Graph Social Media Card Updated October 22, 2026 · Originally published October 16, 2026 Warsh said international economic conditions have developed largely in line with Federal Reserve expectations following September‘s monetary…
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FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board building is seen in WashingtonThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper - Judge dismisses $100 million Moody lawsuit against Galveston attorney - Latitude Margaritaville developer closes on 1,318-acre Texas City tract - Mystery mailers targeting Texas families raise… -
Will Federal Reserve Raise Interest Rates in October 2026: Expert ForecastOctober 22, 2026 by Marco Santarelli If you're buying a home or thinking about refinancing, that mix matters more than the headline. Let's walk through it. Here's the short version. The Fed raised rates once in September and is expected to… -
The case for an Elastic Reserves system: Recommendations for the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reviewThis system has delivered important benefits. The Fed can provide liquidity during a crisis without automatically lowering interest rates, and it has generally kept its benchmark rate within its target range. The proposal draws on the Bank…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
73%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase73%▼ 6
- No change23%▲ 4
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
76%chance▼ 5
Fed Decision in January?
67%No change
- No change67%▲ 8
- 25 bps increase29%▼ 8
- 50+ bps increase1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
69%2 (50 bps)
- 2 (50 bps)69%
- 1 (25 bps)24%▲ 3
- 3 (75 bps)7%▼ 2
2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5+ (125+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%▲ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause23%▲ 6
- Hike–Hike–Hike1%▼ 7
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%▼ 2
- Other1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.