Brazil Presidential Election
58%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro58%▼ 25
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva42%▲ 26
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Australian House election winner? (2028)
The odds
52%Australian Labor Party
- Australian Labor Party52%
- Liberal-National Coalition39%
- One Nation7%
- Australian Greens3%
How the odds have moved
Australian Labor Party: 51% on Oct 20, 52% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 52% | 48¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 10.6K | |
| Liberal-National Coalition | 39% | 35¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 6.4K | |
| One Nation | 7% | 2¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 479 | |
| Australian Greens | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | 52.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Australian House, Australian Labor Party, Liberal-National Coalition
Search ›-
Nationals leader Matt Canavan eyes move to lower house as pollster warns of One Nation wipeoutMichelle Landry announces she will not recontest her Queensland seat of Capricornia at the next election Get our new political email, free app or daily news podcast Matt Canavan could attempt a switch to the House of Representatives after… - ‘Give them a go’: Liberal candidate advises vote for One Nation in upper houseOctober 24, 2026 — 7:30pm A Liberal candidate in a key battleground seat has been caught out encouraging people to vote for One Nation in the upper house while campaigning in the electorate that is considered vulnerable to Pauline Hanson’s…
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One Nation To Have Access To Costing Alongside Major Parties In 2027 ElectionNSW Parliament has officially amended legislation to ensure One Nation will have access to the independent Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for the March 2027 election. This means Pauline Hanson will be able to submit, alongside Labor… -
Independent Costings Extended To One NationThe One Nation Party will have access to the independent Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) for the March 2027 election. The New South Wales Parliament has amended legislation that will see Labor, the Liberal & National parties and One… -
One Nation Outlines Small Business Vision for NSWWollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. Mike Newman is the only political leader in NSW with an understanding of… - Landry bows out, setting up Canavan showdown with One Nation in CapricorniaOctober 23, 2026 — 4:04pm Veteran Nationals MP Michelle Landry has announced her resignation from the Queensland seat of Capricornia, paving the way for Nationals’ leader Matt Canavan to move from the Senate to the lower house seat…
- MP’s expected resignation paves way for potential One Nation and Coalition contestUpdated October 23, 2026 - 12.32am. First published at 12.11am Capricornia MP Michelle Landry’s expected resignation on Friday has paved the way for a crucial One Nation and Coalition contest. Landry has held the central Queensland seat…
- From Haines to One Nation, the only exceptionalism left is negativeAFR Opinion | Michael Stutchbury With the nation’s economic, political, cultural and civil exceptionalism shattered, major effort is needed to prevent Kevin Rudd’s warning of a “second-rate country” coming true. Two decades ago, the…
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New WA One Nation MP Luke Herdegen echoes Pauline Hanson’s warning about Australia being ‘swamped’ by migrantsOne Nation MP Luke Herdegen has unleashed on the major parties, using his inaugural speech to accuse Labor of treating voters like fools and vowing that he intends to govern. One Nation MP Luke Herdegen has unleashed on the major political… -
Green Left Show #93: David Shoebridge on defeating Labor as the path to beating One NationNew Greens leader David Shoebridge joined the Green Left Show to discuss his plans to replace Labor. Green Left Show #93: David Shoebridge on defeating Labor as the path to beating One Nation New Greens leader David Shoebridge joined the… -
Pauline Hanson concedes One Nation video mocking Jacqui Lambie’s prolapsed vagina needs to be changedOne Nation senator says controversial cartoon ‘needs to be reined in’ as Lambie praised for speaking out about health issues Get our new political email, free app or daily news podcast One Nation’s leader, Pauline Hanson, says she has… - One Nation MP says his party plans to govern in first speechOctober 22, 2026 — 7:46pm One Nation MP Luke Herdegen says his party intends to govern in Western Australia in a maiden parliamentary speech loaded with attacks on mainstream politics and the Labor Party. Herdegen’s 20-minute first speech…
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43%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen43%▼ 3
- Édouard Philippe16%▼ 1
- David Lisnard14%▲ 1
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions