Brazil Presidential Election
80%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro80%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%
Install
Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? (Before Sep 23, 2029)
The odds
39%Anthony Albanese
- Anthony Albanese39%
- Angus Taylor20%
- Pauline Hanson17%
- Andrew Hastie6%
- Jane Hume6%
- Jim Chalmers5%
- Richard Marles5%
How the odds have moved
Anthony Albanese: 38% on Oct 19, 39% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Albanese | 39% | 36¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 8.00 | |
| Angus Taylor | 20% | 16¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 38.00 | |
| Pauline Hanson | 17% | 13¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 364 | |
| Andrew Hastie | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 6.00 | |
| Jane Hume | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 76.00 | |
| Jim Chalmers | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 73.00 | |
| Richard Marles | 5% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 58.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, Angus Taylor
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Latika M Bourke: Pauline Hanson said sorry for things done in her name — why didn’t Anthony Albanese?LATIKA M BOURKE: The poison that pervades social dysfunction and bitter political debate abroad has arrived onshore and could become a permanent feature. -
‘East coast problem’: Angus Taylor promises to protect WA gas industryAngus Taylor has made a pitch for WA votes, promising to protect the west’s gas industry and its GST — as well as fostering its entrepreneurial spirit. -
Angus Taylor flies into Perth, set to rev up his party at Liberal Party state conferenceAngus Taylor has also flown into Perth to rev up his troops, as internal discontent is expected to be laid bare at the party’s annual State Conference held across the weekend. - If Pauline Hanson can wise up, surely everyone else can tooOctober 24, 2026 — 5:00am You’ve heard many tributes to Helen Haines. You’re about to hear many more. Don’t be fooled. Australia is on the brink of missing the moment. If so, nothing significant will change. We’d not be returning to…
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Fired-up Angus Taylor declares Albanese Government has failed WA’s small businesses crying out for helpOpposition Leader Angus Taylor has launched a scathing attack on the Albanese Government for failing West Australian small businesses with its controversial tax overhauls, red tape and rising costs. -
Editorial: Angus Taylor hits WA target with big gas promisesThe West Australian is a leading news source in Perth and WA. Breaking local and world news from sport and business to lifestyle and current affairs. -
‘Pathetic’: Barnaby Joyce rips into Anthony Albanese over ‘dirt file’ into Helen HainesThe West Australian is a leading news source in Perth and WA. Breaking local and world news from sport and business to lifestyle and current affairs. One Nationâs Barnaby Joyce has ripped into Anthony Albanese about a âdirt fileâ his… - Meeting the China Challenge with Kevin Rudd, Fmr. Prime Minister of AustraliaJUST RELEASED: The 53rd Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd joins us for a timely discussion on the U.S., China, and the pathway forward for this consequential relationship. Rudd is the author of…
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Pauline Hanson concedes One Nation video mocking Jacqui Lambie’s prolapsed vagina needs to be changedOne Nation senator says controversial cartoon ‘needs to be reined in’ as Lambie praised for speaking out about health issues Get our new political email, free app or daily news podcast One Nation’s leader, Pauline Hanson, says she has… -
Pauline Hanson apologises for vulgar cartoon on rivalPauline Hanson in June 2026. (Source: Getty) One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has apologised for a cartoon posted to her social media channels, which mocked a Senate colleague over a serious health condition. After previously telling… -
New WA One Nation MP Luke Herdegen echoes Pauline Hanson’s warning about Australia being ‘swamped’ by migrantsOne Nation MP Luke Herdegen has unleashed on the major parties, using his inaugural speech to accuse Labor of treating voters like fools and vowing that he intends to govern. One Nation MP Luke Herdegen has unleashed on the major political…
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41%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro <4%41%▲ 2
- Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%33%▼ 2
- Lula da Silva <4%19%
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- Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+1%▼ 1
- Lula da Silva 4-8%1%
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- Lula da Silva 12%+<1%
Next French Presidential Election
45%Marine Le Pen
- Marine Le Pen45%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe17%▲ 1
- David Lisnard14%
42 more
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%▲ 1
- Raphaël Glucksmann4%▼ 1
- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
- Gabriel Attal1%
- Sarah Knafo1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Sébastien Lecornu<1%
- Christine Lagarde<1%
- Xavier Bertrand<1%
- Marion Maréchal<1%
- Natacha Polony<1%
- François Ruffin<1%
- Marine Tondelier<1%
- Ségolène Royal<1%
- François Asselineau<1%
- Jean Castex<1%
- Laurent Wauquiez<1%
- Fabien Roussel<1%
- Olivier Faure<1%
- Clémentine Autain<1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan<1%
- Michel Barnier<1%
- Valérie Pécresse<1%
- François Bayrou<1%
- Élisabeth Borne<1%
- Yaël Braun-Pivet<1%
- Gérald Darmanin<1%
- Carole Delga<1%
- Bernard Cazeneuve<1%
- Manuel Bompard<1%
- Mathilde Panot<1%
- Juan Branco<1%
- Clémence Guetté<1%
- Karim Bouamrane<1%
- Lucie Castets<1%
- Yannick Jadot<1%
- François Baroin<1%
- Anasse Kazib<1%
- Sylvain Durif<1%
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
72%Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
- Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia72%▼ 2
- Student List – Students Win28%▲ 1
- Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<1%
7 more
- Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)<1%
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor<1%
- Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification<1%
- Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić<1%
- Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović<1%
- European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš<1%
- SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak<1%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
71%Yashar
- Yashar71%▲ 1
- Likud28%▼ 2
- Together1%
3 more
- Shas<1%
- The Democrats<1%
- Otzma Yehudit<1%
Brazil Presidential election winner?
81%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro81%▲ 3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.