Brazil Presidential Election
79%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%▼ 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%▲ 2
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Argentina presidential election winner? (2027)
The odds
51%Javier Milei
- Javier Milei51%▼ 3
- Axel Kicillof29%
- Sergio Massa11%
- Patricia Bullrich5%
- Mauricio Macri1%
- Eduardo de Pedro1%
- Horacio Rodríguez Larreta1%
How the odds have moved
Javier Milei: 54% on Oct 20, 51% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 51% | ▼ 3 | 50¢ | 53¢ | $1.89 | 32.3K |
| Axel Kicillof | 29% | 29¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 5.9K | |
| Sergio Massa | 11% | 9¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 11.0K | |
| Patricia Bullrich | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | 1.8K | |
| Mauricio Macri | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 35.00 | |
| Eduardo de Pedro | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 103 | |
| Horacio Rodríguez Larreta | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 104 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Argentina, Javier Milei, Axel Kicillof
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How Much Contempt Does Javier Milei Have for the State?"My contempt for the state is infinite." —Javier Milei, explaining his willingness to make deep cuts to existing spending and regulation in Argentina, from an interview with The Economist in 2024. NEXT: Brickbat: Don't Slap Me Five Meagan… -
Argentina's Javier Milei issues huge update on Falkland IslandsArgentine President Javier Milei has ruled out invading the Falkland Islands to seize control of them from Britain. The firebrand libertarian claimed London is a “geopolitical and demographic” risk to security. But, whilst repeating his… -
Javier Milei once again rules out 'military solutions' to seize the Falkland IslandsArgentina's invasion of the archipelago in 1982 ended in just 74 days Sir John Redwood says Javier Milei's provocations over the Falklands reflect his unpopularity at home Javier Milei officially ruled out "military solutions" to seize the… -
Argentine-born Trump supporter credits president for Latin America's rightward political shiftMarcelo Sandrin, who has lived in the US for three decades, points to Argentina's Javier Milei and changing politics across South America as signs of Trump's growing influence. Argentine-born Trump supporter credits president for Latin… -
Spanish Students Protest Javier Milei’s Visit to UniversityThe sign reads, “Reactionaries out of the university.” Oct. 21, 2026. Madrid. X/ @OES_Madrid October 21, 2026 Hour: 8:28 am On Wednesday, hundreds of Spanish students gathered at Rey Juan Carlos University (URJC) to protest the visit of… - How Argentina’s Javier Milei hopes to exploit a dispute over Falklands oil in next year’s electionArgentina is trying to stop a planned oil project near the Falkland Islands. On October 13, the government asked the International Tribunal for the Law of the Seas (Itlos), a court in Hamburg that deals with disputes over the sea, to halt…
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Report: 'Netanyahu ordered policy shift to support Argentina in Falkland Islands dispute'The British Telegraph reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided that Israel will support Argentina on the Falkland Islands issue. According to the report, he instructed diplomats to change Israel's official position, to… -
Argentina President Javier Milei Endorses Maria Elvira SalazarArgentina President Javier Milei has endorsed Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) in her reelection bid for Florida’s 27th Congressional District (FL CD 27). “María Elvira is one of the continent's most outspoken and respected… -
US Flags Argentina Falklands Bill on 22 OctARGENTINA · US RELATIONS US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said in Buenos Aires on Thursday 22 October 2026 that Washington is watching a proposed Argentine law that could punish US companies over the disputed Falklands… -
Report: Netanyahu shifts Israel's stance on Falkland Islands in favor of ArgentinaAccording to The Telegraph, Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Israeli diplomats to back Argentina's sovereignty claim over the Falkland Islands, disputed with Britain; the shift is believed to be linked to British sanctions on Israeli settlements… -
Netanyahu Has Told Israeli Diplomats To Support Argentine Push For Falklands Talks: ReportIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli diplomats to support Buenos Aires' calls for diplomatic talks over the future of the Falklands Islands, a self-governing British Overseas Territory which Argentina calls the Malvinas… -
Bolsonaro Lead Over Lula Shrinks as Trump Stays on Brazil Election SidelineOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to a statistical tie ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil, while President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro's most…
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- Marine Le Pen46%▼ 1
- Édouard Philippe16%
- David Lisnard14%
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- Raphaël Glucksmann3%▼ 1
- François Hollande2%
- Bruno Retailleau1%
- Éric Zemmour1%
- Jordan Bardella1%
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Brazil Presidential election winner?
81%Flávio Bolsonaro
- Flávio Bolsonaro81%▲ 2
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva20%▼ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.