Who will be Argentina's Peronist presidential nominee? (2027)

Kalshi Elections › Around the world Closes Aug 7, 2028 · $30 today · $569 traded · $421 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

53%Axel Kicillof
  • Axel Kicillof53%▼ 3
  • Sergio Massa16%▲ 4
  • Máximo Kirchner5%▼ 1
  • Sergio Uñac4%
  • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner3%
  • Gerardo Zamora2%
  • Eduardo de Pedro2%
  • Juan Grabois2%
  • Ricardo Quintela2%
  • Jorge Capitanich2%
  • Dante Gebel2%

How the odds have moved

Axel Kicillof: 51% on Oct 19, 53% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Axel Kicillof 53% ▼ 3 49¢ 57¢ $1.75 434
Sergio Massa 16% ▲ 4 12¢ 20¢ $5.00 1.3K
Máximo Kirchner 5% ▼ 1 1¢ 9¢ $11.11 1.0K
Sergio Uñac 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 334
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 433
Gerardo Zamora 2% 1¢ 3¢ $33.33 515
Eduardo de Pedro 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 433
Juan Grabois 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 682
Ricardo Quintela 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 515
Jorge Capitanich 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 682
Dante Gebel 2% 1¢ 2¢ $50.00 515

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Argentina's Peronist, Axel Kicillof, Sergio Massa

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  • Expresidenta argentina enfrenta un nuevo juicio por corrupción; también está acusado su hijoChicago Tribune · 46 h agoLa fiscalía acusa a Fernández —actual líder del peronismo opositor — de haber sido jefa de una asociación ilícita. A su hijo, el diputado peronista Máximo Kirchner, lo acusa de haber sido el organizador de esa estructura delictiva. Como…
  • The “perverse” effects of the (un)necessary runoff electionLatinoamérica 21 · 7 days agoOne region, all voices Once in office, a president’s legitimacy increases or decreases depending on other factors, such as respect for the rule of law and effective performance. Presidents elected in runoffs often end their terms badly…
  • Kicillof vs Milei: Argentina’s 2027 Election ExplainedThe Rio Times · 9 days agoKicillof vs Milei is the matchup that already frames Argentina’s 2027 presidential election, due on Sunday 24 October 2027. No ticket is formal yet: Milei’s camp says he will run again, while Kicillof keeps his plans open. Argentina ranks…
  • Argentines to March to Demand University Funding - teleSUR EnglishteleSURenglish · 13 days agoThe fifth Federal University March will bring together education, labor, and social sectors to demand increased funding for public universities and the definitive rejection of Emergency Decree (DNU) 70/23. October 12, 2026 Hour: 2:21 pm…
  • Who Dominates Argentina, Elites and Regions ExplainedThe Rio Times · 15 days agoPower in Argentina matters to Washington, which backed President Javier Milei with a swap line of up to US$20 billion in 2025. Yet Milei must bargain with Peronist governors and unions, family-owned industrial groups and churches, while a…
  • Argentina Seeks Governors’ Votes to Suspend PrimariesThe Rio Times · 22 days agoArgentina’s government has sped up talks on an electoral accord with allied governors, the newspaper Perfil reported on Saturday 3 October. The goal is to suspend the PASO, the compulsory nationwide party primaries, before the 2027 general…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions