Gemini 3.5 Pro debut arena score

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $35.3K traded · $9.2K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

29%above 1490

1,4851,525

How the odds have moved

above 1490: 25% on Oct 20, 29% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
above 1490	29%		12¢	24¢	$4.17	21.3K
above 1495	28%		6¢	21¢	$4.76	14.4K
above 1500	26%		12¢	28¢	$3.57	25.8K
above 1505	26%		5¢	27¢	$3.70	9.0K
above 1510	26%	▲ 3	13¢	25¢	$4.00	17.0K
above 1515	26%		13¢	53¢	$1.89	34.6K
above 1520	23%		10¢	24¢	$4.17	9.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gemini, Google AI, Gemini Pro

Search ›

Google is taking Gemini Pro away from its $5 AI Plus subscribersPhandroid · 40 h agoThe timing stings. AI Plus launched in January at $7.99 a month with access to Gemini 3 Pro. Google then cut the price to $5 in June and doubled the storage to 400GB. Now Pro is leaving the plan about five months later. Google changed its…
Comic Studio AI: Turning Voice & Text Prompts into 4-Panel Comics with Google AI Studio, Gemini & ImagenDEV Community · 2 days agoEducation Track: Build Apps with Google AI Studio As a Google Developer Expert (GDE) in AI & Cloud, one of the biggest bottlenecks I see when teaching developers and students about multimodal AI architectures is turning abstract technical…
How to Track Your Brand in Google AI Overviews Without a Paid APIDEV Community · 25 h agoGoogle AI Overviews now answer a large share of commercial questions before any website gets a click. Business owners ask me the same thing every week: are we even in those answers? The honest problem is tooling. Most AI visibility…
Automate a boring task for $0 with the Google AI Studio free API tierDEV Community · 2 days agoGoogle AI Studio gives you a free Gemini API key with a generous free tier. No credit card. Here is the full path from zero to a working automation. No SDK needed. Plain curl works: gemini-2.5-flash-lite is the fastest model and has the…
Google AI Summaries Squeeze The Websites That Depend On Search TrafficNortheast Times · 12 h agoGoogle's AI search features have made it harder for online publishers to survive on search traffic alone, The Verge reported Sunday in its Stepback newsletter, written by Emma Roth. The change affects any reader who finds news through…
Save up to $200 on Google Chromebooks — discover what's possible when you bring the power of Google AI to your ChromebookTom's Hardware · 29 h agoTom's Hardware Approved - Sponsored Offer Lighter on your backpack and wallet With a 0.78-inch profile and a 2.99-pound weight, the IdeaPad Slim 3 Chromebook is a portable device you can carry with you. The 14-inch IPS display with WUXGA…
Cheapest Gemini Pro Models (Oct 2026): Prices Compared | LiteLLMLiteLLM Model Catalog · 5 days agoCheapest Gemini Pro Models: the top 4, sorted by blended price per 1m tokens, from LiteLLM's price file. Cheapest Gemini Pro Models As of October 21, 2026, among LiteLLM's active models with a 32K-token context window or more, offered by…
I canceled Google AI Plus after the downgrade, but I’m still using GeminiAndroid Authority · 3 days agoOct 25, 2026 — 7:30 AM ET I’ve been a Gemini user for a couple of years now. I use it mainly for learning new skills and summarizing concepts. It’s well-integrated with whatever Android smartphone I use, giving me helpful features like…
How to check whether ChatGPT and Google AI Overviews name your local businessDEV Community · 3 days agoAI answers change. Ask an engine the same question twice and it can name different businesses. Engines also guess where you are from your connection when the question has no place in it. So use fixed questions with the place name in each…
US Blacklists Sam Altman's Old Y Combinator China Pick Over Startup Built On Stolen Google AI SecretsZeroHedge · 3 days agoLatest: Can The Gulf Be Rebuilt? Of all the people who could end up on a US sanctions list for bankrolling stolen Google AI technology, a former Microsoft executive hand-picked by Sam Altman to run Y Combinator's China arm was probably not…
Convertion F45 Server to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks based on BTRFS-XFS Setup ( Assisted by Google AI )lxer.com · 43 h agoConverting a server (such as a high-density virtualization platform) to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks solves the fundamental performance bottlenecks and management complexities inherent in running virtual machines on top of…
Google AI Overview Citation Cards With AI-Generated Summary SnippetsSearch Engine Roundtable · 4 days agoGoogle seems to be testing or rolling out AI-generated summaries within AI Overviews citation cards. So the cards on the right (or bottom) of the AI Overviews within Google Search can now show AI summary snippets/descriptions. Google seems…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onLM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$35.3K (132,025 contracts)

This week$3.5K

At stake$9.2K

In the news44 headlines today, 603 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater scores above 1490 on Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) Before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions