Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%
- Ken Paxton36%
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When will AP call the 2026 U.S. Senate majority?
The odds
96%Before Jan 5
- Before Jan 596%▲ 1
- Before Dec 395%▲ 1
- Before Nov 1994%▲ 1
- Before Nov 1488%
- Before Nov 786%▲ 1
- Before Nov 575%▼ 2
- Before 4AM Nov 464%▲ 1
- Before 1AM Nov 448%▲ 1
- Before Nov 438%▼ 3
- Before 11PM Nov 316%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 5: 95% on Oct 19, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 5 | 96% | ▲ 1 | 92¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| Before Dec 3 | 95% | ▲ 1 | 91¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| Before Nov 19 | 94% | ▲ 1 | 90¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 298 |
| Before Nov 14 | 88% | 86¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 232 | |
| Before Nov 7 | 86% | ▲ 1 | 83¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | 188 |
| Before Nov 5 | 75% | ▼ 2 | 71¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 895 |
| Before 4AM Nov 4 | 64% | ▲ 1 | 61¢ | 67¢ | $1.49 | 281 |
| Before 1AM Nov 4 | 48% | ▲ 1 | 45¢ | 51¢ | $1.96 | 211 |
| Before Nov 4 | 38% | ▼ 3 | 36¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 466 |
| Before 11PM Nov 3 | 16% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 553 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: U.S. Senate
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"The Angle:" Illinois U.S. Senate speaks, experts weigh in on mayoral race and Chicago budgetDemocratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former Illinois Republican Party chair Don Tracy are running to replace U.S. Dick Durbin, and they have two very different visions for the future. Chris Tye recently talked to each. Also… -
Full interview with Don Tracy, Illinois Republican candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News Chicago political reporter Chris Tye sat down with former Illinois Republican Party chairman Don Tracy, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, to discuss his candidacy and priorities. Full… -
Full interview with Juliana Stratton, Illinois Democratic candidate for U.S. SenateCBS News Chicago is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WBBM-TV and CBS2, CBS News Chicago offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Full interview with… -
U.S. Senate race spotlight: Juliana Stratton vs. Don Tracy in IllinoisIn less than two weeks, Illinois voters will decide who will replace longtime U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, who is retiring after 30 years in office. The two candidates to replace him, Democratic Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and former… -
Iowa U.S. Senate candidates disagree on range of issues(The Center Square) – U.S. Senate candidates in Iowa disagree on a range of issues, from tariffs to energy and healthcare costs. U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, and Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek are battling for the seat as concerns about… -
President Obama supports Angie Nixon for U.S. Senate!Before I ever ran for office, I was an organizer in Duval County, knocking on doors and fighting alongside my neighbors because I was tired of our elected officials leaving us without any support. I started organizing, and then eventually… -
Candidates lock in for final sprint in Texas U.S. Senate raceNPR Candidates lock in for final sprint in Texas U.S. Senate race From The Texas Newsroom What issues are bringing individuals to the polls in this key race that could decide the balance of power in Congress? What last minute push is being… -
U.S. Senate candidate Jamie Davis campaigns in Shreveport as early voting continues in Caddo ParishSHREVEPORT, La. (KSLA) - U.S. Senate candidate Jamie Davis made a campaign stop in Shreveport on Saturday, Oct. 24, as early voting continues across Caddo Parish. Davis, the Democratic nominee, is facing Republican Julia Letlow in the Nov… -
Trump says he ordered lawsuit over Alaska's U.S. Senate racePresident Donald Trump on Friday said he told his administration to file its lawsuit to block certification of the U.S. Senate race in Alaska if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, kicking off what many fear could become a lengthy battle… -
Can Angie Nixon turn out enough young voters to win a U.S. Senate seat?Young voters are fired up for U.S. Senate candidate Angie Nixon — but will enough of them show up in November to propel the Democrat to victory in blood-red Florida? Nixon, the progressive firebrand Florida House member challenging… -
Examining how increased advance voting benefits Kansas candidates in U.S. Senate raceFrom churches to political rallies, there's a concerted effort to get more Kansans to vote. Pastors from several faiths announced plans Friday to hold marches to the polls on Halloween. The push comes as the Kansas Senate race between…
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions