Texas Senate winner? (2026)
65%James Talarico
- James Talarico65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton36%
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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?
The odds
Dec 30, 2027even chance by
- Before Jul 1, 202716%
- Before Jan 1, 202851%
- Before Apr 1, 202856%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2027: 16% on Oct 20, 16% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 16% | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 51% | 46¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 9.00 | |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 56% | 54¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 34.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Senate
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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigns for Troy Jackson, touts shared progressive valuesPORTLAND, Maine - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) traveled to Maine on Thursday to take the stage with Senate candidate Troy Jackson in Portland. The two took several questions from college students at the event hosted by “More… -
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeals to Maine women at rally with Troy JacksonPORTLAND, Maine — U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez urged Maine women to back Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson at a Portland town hall Thursday, arguing health care and families would be best served by ousting Republican Sen… -
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stumps for Jackson in Maine U.S. Senate raceThe Black Chronicle (The Center Square) — Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is set to visit Maine on Thursday to stump for Democrat Troy Jackson, with the latest polls showing him locked in a tight U.S. Senate race against Republican… -
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigns with Troy Jackson in PortlandJackson and Ocasio-Cortez were in lockstep on many progressive policies like defunding ICE and Medicare for All. By Yimou Lee YILAN, Taiwan, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Almost all of Taiwan shut down on Friday ahead of the arrival of Typhoon… -
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes latest politician sent suspicious letterOct 21, 2026, 6:18 AM Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez confirmed that her district office in The Bronx was sent a suspicious letter on Tuesday. The New York Democrat released a statement expressing gratitude for law enforcement’s quick… - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Calls on Albanian Government to De-Escalate “Violent Repression of Protestors and Respect” Albanians’ Freedom of ExpressionRep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently shared her thoughts on the Albanian protests, urging the government to de-escalate violent repression. “Over the last week, I have received outreach from Albanian community members who are worried…
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Donald Trump makes surprising admission about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during Kansas rallyTrump pays strange compliment to AOC(Image: Getty) President Donald Trump made an unexpected comment about Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez during a campaign rally in Kansas on Monday, saying he likes the progressive Democrat better than some… -
Once Democratic colleagues, now stumping for rivals in Maine’s Senate raceBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Dueling appearances by… -
Manchin, Ocasio-Cortez are closers in Maine Senate raceNORWAY, Maine – Susan Collins and Joe Manchin arrived right on time – Maine’s Republican senator and West Virginia’s last Democratic senator, in matching red fleece, making a cheerful Wednesday stop a New Balance factory. Collins… -
AOC backs trans rights because she is a 'girl's girl'Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., discusses her support for transgender rights, saying she is a 'girl's girl.' ... AOC backs trans rights because she is a 'girl's girl' Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., discusses her support for… -
Recommended StoriesWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions