Texas Senate winner? (2026)
66%James Talarico
- James Talarico66%▲ 2
- Ken Paxton35%▼ 1
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Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? (Blexas)
The odds
71%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 68% on Oct 20, 71% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 71% | 70¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 34.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas, Blexas
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Lt. Governor Dan Patrick expects Texas Republicans to surpass Democrats in early voting turnoutOctober 25, 2026 / 6:00 AM CDT / CBS Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick predicted Republicans in Texas will close the gap with Democrats during early voting sometime next week. In an interview with CBS News Texas on Friday, Patrick said, "The… -
Democrat James Talarico targets Elon Musk at rally: ‘Texas is not for sale’The Senate candidate denounced opponent Ken Paxton, calling out corruption allegations and support from Musk James Talarico, the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Texas, has taken aim at Elon Musk, warning that the tech mogul is… -
Crossroads of Texas GO TEXAN Country Festival draws crowdsCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Crossroads of Texas GO… -
Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas campaign stopTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton criticized Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico during a campaign stop, accusing him of supporting socialist policies. Ken Paxton blasts James Talarico as 'radical Democrat' during Texas… -
Texas early voting data trends, what analysts are focusing on in the Texas Senate raceCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
Crossroads of Texas Go Texan Country Festival gets underway in WaxahachieCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Crossroads of Texas Go… -
Ted Cruz Booed by F1 Crowd in TexasOct 26, 2026 at 05:36 AM EDT U.S. Senator Ted Cruz received a frosty reception from some at Formula 1's U.S. Grand Prix on Sunday, with boos ringing out as he took to the podium to present the winner’s trophy to Kimi Antonelli. Boos were… -
Baseball bat vendor discusses the draw at the Crossroads of Texas Go Texan Country FestivalCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Baseball bat vendor… -
Trump, Vance headline separate rallies in Texas this weekWBZ News Weekend 11pm CBS News Chicago Weekends 10pm CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 8pm CBS News New York Weekend 11pm CBS News Philadelphia Weekend 11pm -
Texas GOP’s Bet on Latinos May Backfire—How Democrats Could Seal the DealOct 23, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Texas Republicans redrew the state's congressional map last year on the assumption that Latino voters who broke for President Donald Trump in 2024 would stay with the party. With less than two weeks until… -
How Christianity Became a Battleground in the Texas Senate RaceOct 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are making Christianity a defining issue in the home stretch of Texas’ U.S. Senate race, offering sharply different visions of what faith should mean in… -
Black Out Sunday engages 1,000 Texas churches for early votingOctober 25, 2026 / 2:51 PM CDT / CBS Texas Early voting is entering its final week, and North Texas faith leaders are pushing to get congregations to the polls. The Black Out Sunday initiative aims to engage a thousand churches across…
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All senate ›Texas Senate Election Winner
65%James Talarico (D)
- James Talarico (D)65%▲ 1
- Ken Paxton (R)36%▼ 1
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? (2026)
65%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party65%▲ 2
- Republican Party36%▼ 2
South Carolina Senate winner? (2026)
76%Darline Graham
- Darline Graham76%▼ 4
- Annie Andrews25%▲ 4
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
63%Democrats sweep
- Democrats sweep63%▼ 1
- D-House, R-Senate28%▲ 2
- Republicans sweep9%
1 more
- R-House, D-Senate1%
Michigan Senate winner? (2026)
66%Abdul El-Sayed
- Abdul El-Sayed66%▼ 1
- Mike Rogers35%▲ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions