Anthropic share of spend on Oct 20, 2026 (Vercel)
35.52%median
28.3%44.1%
Median 35.52%
Install
Anthropic share of spend on Oct 22, 2026 (Vercel)
The odds
43%Above 34.5%
33.8%49.4%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 34.5% | 43% | 47¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 100 | |
| Above 35.2% | 38% | 41¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 150 | |
| Above 42.3% | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Anthropic, Claude, Vercel
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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DeepSeek market share this week (DeepSeek market share - Oct 19, 2026)
27%median
21.6%29%
Median 27%Middle half 25.3% – 27.65%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Oct 27, 2026even chance by
- October 2119%▼ 23
- October 2228%▼ 31
- October 2441%▼ 37
2 more
- October 3173%▼ 10
- December 3196%▼ 3
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
75%Google
- Google75%▲ 4
- Anthropic23%▼ 5
- OpenAI1%
18 more
- Meta1%
- Alibaba<1%
- Moonshot<1%
- Baidu<1%
- Z.ai<1%
- Xiaomi<1%
- SpaceXAI<1%
- DeepSeek<1%
- Amazon<1%
- ByteDance<1%
- Nvidia<1%
- Thinky<1%
- MiniMax<1%
- Mistral<1%
- Meituan<1%
- Tencent<1%
- StepFun<1%
- Microsoft<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.16Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.16T.
- Reaches $1.5T91%
- Reaches $1.75T69%
- Falls to $800B4%
- Falls to $700B4%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.