Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202818%
- December 31, 202924%▲ 1
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AI capability growth this year? (Before 2027)
The odds
1,541median
1,5301,800
Median 1,541
How the odds have moved
Median: 1,543 on Oct 20, 1,541 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ At least 1520 score | 99% | $1.01 | 143.5K | |||
| ✓ At least 1530 score | 99% | $1.01 | 65.1K | |||
| At least 1540 score | 53% | ▲ 2 | 52¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 17.9K |
| At least 1550 score | 28% | ▼ 6 | 26¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 66.0K |
| At least 1600 score | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 22.7K | |
| At least 1650 score | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 5.5K | |
| At least 1700 score | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.8K | |
| At least 1750 score | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 3.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.