Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
24%December 31, 2029
- December 31, 202710%
- December 31, 202818%
- December 31, 202924%▲ 1
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When will any company achieve AGI?
The odds
Feb 26, 2028even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20277%▲ 1
- Before Apr 1, 202719%
- Before Jul 1, 202728%
- Before Oct 1, 202740%
- Before Jan 1, 202840%
- Before Apr 1, 202856%
- Before Jul 1, 202874%
- Before Oct 1, 202875%
- Before Jan 1, 202977%
- Before Jan 1, 203080%
- Before Jan 1, 203180%
How the odds have moved
Before Jul 1, 2028: 74% on Oct 20, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 57.1K | |||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 38.3K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 19% | 18¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 23.1K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 28% | 28¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 33.5K | |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 40% | 41¢ | 42¢ | $2.38 | 34.2K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 40% | 38¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | 21.8K | |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 56% | 56¢ | 57¢ | $1.75 | 10.0K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 74% | 73¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 5.1K | |
| Before Oct 1, 2028 | 75% | 74¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 4.9K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 77% | 76¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | 4.1K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 80% | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 4.5K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 80% | 77¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 9.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI model, artificial intelligence, Corporate
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.