When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?

Kalshi Tech › AI Closes Jul 1, 2027 · $198 today · $2.6K traded · $2.6K at stake · prices read 34 min ago

The odds

Jan 20, 2027even chance by

Before Dec 1, 202625%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202738%▼ 7
Before Feb 1, 202758%▼ 7
Before Apr 1, 202773%▼ 1
Before Jul 1, 202781%

How the odds have moved

Before Dec 1, 2026: 25% on Oct 20, 25% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Dec 1, 2026	25%	▼ 1	21¢	29¢	$3.45	2.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027	38%	▼ 7	34¢	41¢	$2.44	1.3K
Before Feb 1, 2027	58%	▼ 7	54¢	62¢	$1.61	942
Before Apr 1, 2027	73%	▼ 1	68¢	77¢	$1.30	694
Before Jul 1, 2027	81%		77¢	85¢	$1.18	684

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index

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Kimi K3.1 Pro Is Now The Strongest Model Out Of China: Cyber Data Stripped From Its Training But That Barely Holds Its Potential BackWccftech · 2 days agoWith OpenAI and Anthropic both clamping down hard on the ability of China's AI labs to distill their leading models, many expected Moonshot's Kimi K3.1 Pro to flounder. And yet, not only has that eventually not come to pass, Moonshot seems…
Chinese AI model Kimi K3.1 Pro is closing in on Anthropic's Claude Opus 5.5The Decoder · 2 days agoMoonshot AI's new reasoning model Kimi K3.1 Pro lands at number four on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, just 3 points behind the top proprietary models. Chinese AI company Moonshot AI has released Kimi K3.1 Pro, a post-trained…
Podcast: Kimi K3.1 Pro, the new cyber reality, and Muse musingsInterconnects AI · 11 h agoWe — Nathan and Florian — wanted to discuss all the messy trade-offs of a busy week in AI and ask all the pressing questions like: Why did Kimi K3.1 Pro have a mixed reaction with such incredible benchmarks? Will it be adopted? Were we…
Why a model scoring 43% on DeepSWE beats one scoring 60%: reading the DeepSeek 1017, Muse Spark 816B, and Beam 501B benchmarksregolo.ai · 3 days agoWhy does Reflection Beam 501B score 43.3% on DeepSWE v1.1 yet 81.6% on SWE-bench Verified at 327 tok/s and $0.23/task? We compare DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017, Meta Muse Spark 816B, Beam 501B, and GLM-5.3 across model cards and Artificial…
Kimi K3.1 Pro Debuts With 1M Context, 3T Class [2026]Tech Insider · 37 h agoMoonshot AI released Kimi K3.1 Pro on October 23, 2026, and the first independent scoreboard put it fourth overall. The Decoder reports that the model scored 55 points on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, an 11-point jump over…
Kimi K3.1 Pro launches at 4th on the Intelligence Index and will lead open weights modelsArtificial Analysis · 3 days agoMoonshot's new reasoning model gains 11 points over Kimi K3 (max, 44). It trails only Claude Opus 5.5 (max with fallback, 58), Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max with fallback, 56), and Muse Wonder Full (max, 56) on the Intelligence Index. Once the…
China AI model stocks' $150 billion drop shows no sign of easingMoneycontrol · 3 days agoThere’s no end in sight for the selloff in China’s artificial intelligence model developer stocks, with competition growing ever more heated and the threat of rival listings next year. MiniMax Group Inc. and Z.AI Co., also known as Zhipu…
How to Build a Model Router in the HarnessLangChain Blog · 3 days agoFrontier LLMs continue to be expensive. As agents become ubiquitous and operate at massive scale, this is cost prohibitive. Luckily, most agents don't need frontier-level intelligence for every task. Model labs even say so: Anthropic's…
Mercury 3 vs Claude Opus 5: The Same 1M-Token Window, Priced Two Different WaysOrcaRouter · 5 days ago• Context and output — Mercury 3: 1,000,000 in, 131,072 out. Claude Opus 5: 1,000,000 in, 128,000 out. • Modalities — Mercury 3: text in, text out. Claude Opus 5: text, image and file in, text out. • Speed — Mercury 3: 1,068 tokens per…
Reflection AI Releases Beam, Becomes Second-Best US Open Model On Artificial Analysis Intelligence IndexOfficeChai · 8 days agoThe US appears to be making some inroads into the open model space, which was thus far largely dominated by China. Reflection AI, the New York-based lab founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, has released its first model, and…
MiniMax Releases M3.1 Flash AI Model With Substantial Cost Cuts and Better PerformanceWinBuzzer · 6 days agoMiniMax's M3.1 Flash AI model improves on M3 in reasoning tests. Across broader AI capability tests, M3.1 Flash's weighted average cost is $0.22 per task, versus M3's $0.51. MiniMax has released M3.1 Flash, an AI model built for coding and…
HealthBench and HealthBench Professional: Evaluating models in realistic health conversationsArtificial Analysis · 6 days agoWe report both the raw score (the share of rubric points earned) and the length-adjusted score that OpenAI reports. The length-adjusted score lowers the score of replies longer than 2,000 characters and raises the score of shorter ones…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onArtificial Analysis

Trading closesJul 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$2.6K (5,816 contracts)

Today$198

This week$90

At stake$2.6K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If any AI model company records above 65 on Artificial Analysis's Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/providers) after market issuance and before December 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions