When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

Polymarket Tech › AI Closes Nov 1 · $634 today · $318K traded · $42.5K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

The odds

98%No release by November 1

No release by November 198%▲ 1
October 26–November 11%▲ 1
October 19–October 25<1%

How the odds have moved

No release by November 1: 97% on Oct 20, 98% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
No release by November 1	98%	▲ 1	98¢	99¢	$1.01	$17K
October 26–November 1	1%	▲ 1	0¢	2¢	$47.62	$12.4K
October 19–October 25	<1%			0¢		$21K
Prior to August 31	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$779
August 31–September 6	<1%	▼ 1		1¢	$100.00	$514
September 7–September 13	<1%	▼ 2		0¢		$1.7K
September 14–September 20	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$754
September 21–September 27	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$2.1K
September 28–October 4	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$30K
October 5–October 11	<1%			0¢		$28.7K
October 12–October 18	<1%	▼ 1		0¢		$50.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Gemini, Google AI, Google Gemini Pro

Search ›

Google AI Summaries Squeeze The Websites That Depend On Search TrafficNortheast Times · 7 h agoGoogle's AI search features have made it harder for online publishers to survive on search traffic alone, The Verge reported Sunday in its Stepback newsletter, written by Emma Roth. The change affects any reader who finds news through…
How to Track Your Brand in Google AI Overviews Without a Paid APIDEV Community · 19 h agoGoogle AI Overviews now answer a large share of commercial questions before any website gets a click. Business owners ask me the same thing every week: are we even in those answers? The honest problem is tooling. Most AI visibility…
Save up to $200 on Google Chromebooks — discover what's possible when you bring the power of Google AI to your ChromebookTom's Hardware · 24 h agoTom's Hardware Approved - Sponsored Offer Lighter on your backpack and wallet With a 0.78-inch profile and a 2.99-pound weight, the IdeaPad Slim 3 Chromebook is a portable device you can carry with you. The 14-inch IPS display with WUXGA…
Convertion F45 Server to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks based on BTRFS-XFS Setup ( Assisted by Google AI )lxer.com · 38 h agoConverting a server (such as a high-density virtualization platform) to Thin XFS LVM Provisioning with Libvirt-Hooks solves the fundamental performance bottlenecks and management complexities inherent in running virtual machines on top of…
Gemini 4 Argon is Here: 1M Output Tokens, Overnight Code Refactors, and Real-World SpeedupsDEV Community · 6 h agoGoogle just released gemini-4-argon in Google AI Studio, Vertex AI, and Antigravity. Instead of just generating code snippets, Argon is built to run multi-step engineering workflows from start to finish without losing the plot. What…
Automate a boring task for $0 with the Google AI Studio free API tierDEV Community · 45 h agoGoogle AI Studio gives you a free Gemini API key with a generous free tier. No credit card. Here is the full path from zero to a working automation. No SDK needed. Plain curl works: gemini-2.5-flash-lite is the fastest model and has the…
Comic Studio AI: Turning Voice & Text Prompts into 4-Panel Comics with Google AI Studio, Gemini & ImagenDEV Community · 2 days agoEducation Track: Build Apps with Google AI Studio As a Google Developer Expert (GDE) in AI & Cloud, one of the biggest bottlenecks I see when teaching developers and students about multimodal AI architectures is turning abstract technical…
Gemini 4 Argon: 1M Tokens, $2 Input, Paid Only [2026]Tech Insider · 29 h agoThe pricing carries a deadline. Google lists an introductory rate of $2 per 1 million input tokens and $10 per 1 million output tokens through November 30, 2026. From December 1, those rates double to $4 and $20. Developers who build on…
Gemini Just Leveled Up: Personalized Responses Powered by Your Google ActivityDEV Community · 7 h agoThis isn’t just about slightly more relevant answers. It’s about an AI that understands you – your interests, your needs, and your recent explorations. Let’s dive deep into what this means and how it works. The Power of Context: Why…
Open-weight DeepSeek beats Google's gated Gemini model at finding bugsStartup Fortune · 9 h agoAikido pooled three runs across 32 freshly disclosed CVEs: DeepSeek V4 Pro rediscovered 28, an 87.5% hit rate, ahead of Opus 5 and Qwen 3.8 at 81.3% each. Total cost for DeepSeek's three runs was about $295, versus $450 to $590 for a…
Google Gemini 4 Argon for Three.js: What Community Tests Actually ShowDEV Community · 12 h agoAI-assisted disclosure: Codex assisted with research, code and writing. Measurements, failure cases and limitations are retained from the original article. Originally published by Alicia on 2026-10-14: Digital Garden by Alicia. Gemini 4…
Google Launched Gemini 4 Argon. Let's Build a Tiny Continuation Loop in TypeScript.DEV Community · 7 h agoMost model calls end one way. You send a request. You get an answer. Done. Long answers are starting to break that shape. On October 13, 2026, Google released Gemini 4 Argon. The launch post credits an "industry-leading 1M unified…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 1, 2026 6:59 PM ET

Traded$318K

Today$634

This week$5.3K

At stake$42.5K

In the news45 headlines today, 606 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must eith

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

Alphabet Inc.GOOGL · about the company320.21−1.24%

From 4Conservative Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions