Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
65%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep65%
- R Senate, D House26%▲ 1
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
Install
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
The odds
28%Pete Buttigieg
- Pete Buttigieg28%▼ 1
- Andy Beshear19%▲ 9
- Rahm Emanuel17%▼ 1
- Ron DeSantis14%
- Gavin Newsom13%▼ 1
- Phil Murphy11%▲ 1
- Raphael Warnock10%
- Mark Kelly9%▼ 2
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%
- J.B. Pritzker8%▼ 2
- Glenn Youngkin8%
- Ted Cruz7%
59 more
- Cory Booker7%
- Don Lemon7%
- J.D. Vance7%
- Rand Paul7%
- Kamala Harris6%▼ 1
- Beto O’Rourke6%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.6%
- Brian Kemp6%
- Josh Hawley5%
- Gina Raimondo5%▼ 4
- Vivek Ramaswamy5%
- Jon Stewart5%
- Nikki Haley5%
- Jon Ossoff5%
- George Clooney5%
- Greg Abbott5%
- Josh Shapiro4%
- Andrew Yang4%
- Hunter Biden4%
- Marco Rubio4%
- Donald Trump Jr.4%▲ 1
- Tucker Carlson4%
- Tom Brady4%
- Elise Stefanik4%▲ 1
- Matt Gaetz4%
- Erika Kirk4%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene4%
- Gretchen Whitmer4%
- Elon Musk3%
- John Thune3%
- Zohran Mamdani3%
- Wes Moore3%
- John Fetterman3%
- Kristi Noem3%
- Ivanka Trump3%
- Oprah Winfrey3%
- Donald Trump3%
- Hillary Clinton3%
- Candace Owens3%
- Steve Bannon3%
- Barack Obama3%
- Michelle Obama3%
- Liz Cheney3%
- Bernie Sanders2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- LeBron James2%
- Katie Britt2%
- Kim Kardashian2%
- Tulsi Gabbard2%
- Mike Pence2%
- Jared Polis2%▼ 1
- MrBeast2%
- Mark Cuban1%
- Roy Cooper1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders1%
- Tim Walz1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Stephen A. Smith1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
How the odds have moved
Pete Buttigieg: 34% on Oct 20, 28% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETPete Buttigieg: 36% → 28%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Buttigieg | 28% | ▼ 1 | 27¢ | 30¢ | $3.39 | $23.7K |
| Andy Beshear | 19% | ▲ 9 | 17¢ | 20¢ | $4.93 | $29.4K |
| Rahm Emanuel | 17% | ▼ 1 | 17¢ | 18¢ | $5.71 | $20.3K |
| Ron DeSantis | 14% | 14¢ | 15¢ | $6.62 | $3.4K | |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $89.7K |
| Phil Murphy | 11% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $4.6K |
| Raphael Warnock | 10% | 9¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $4K | |
| Mark Kelly | 9% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $10.99 | $13.9K |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $58K | |
| J.B. Pritzker | 8% | ▼ 2 | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | $7.9K |
| Glenn Youngkin | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.20 | $6.8K | |
| Ted Cruz | 7% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $17K | |
| Cory Booker | 7% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $13.33 | $17.4K | |
| Don Lemon | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $13.51 | $2.8K | |
| J.D. Vance | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $39.4K | |
| Rand Paul | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $20.4K | |
| Kamala Harris | 6% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $70.1K |
| Beto O’Rourke | 6% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.93 | $11.6K | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | $17.2K | |
| Brian Kemp | 6% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $4.6K | |
| Josh Hawley | 5% | 5¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $9.1K | |
| Gina Raimondo | 5% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | 10¢ | $10.53 | $4.5K |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $9.7K | |
| Jon Stewart | 5% | 4¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $4.6K | |
| Nikki Haley | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $4.7K | |
| Jon Ossoff | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $17.54 | $27.1K | |
| George Clooney | 5% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $5.4K | |
| Greg Abbott | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $17.24 | $4.1K | |
| Josh Shapiro | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $13.8K | |
| Andrew Yang | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $16.4K | |
| Hunter Biden | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | $58.5K | |
| Marco Rubio | 4% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.95 | $12.4K | |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | $9.5K |
| Tucker Carlson | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $30.9K | |
| Tom Brady | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | $9.7K | |
| Elise Stefanik | 4% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $4.4K |
| Matt Gaetz | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $3.4K | |
| Erika Kirk | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | $26.8K | |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $22.3K | |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | $5K | |
| Elon Musk | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $9.8K | |
| John Thune | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | $5K | |
| Zohran Mamdani | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $36.3K | |
| Wes Moore | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | $6.9K | |
| John Fetterman | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | $7.2K | |
| Kristi Noem | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $20.2K | |
| Ivanka Trump | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.64 | $39.5K | |
| Oprah Winfrey | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | $17.6K | |
| Donald Trump | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | $71.1K | |
| Hillary Clinton | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $16K | |
| Candace Owens | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | $12.2K | |
| Steve Bannon | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $22.22 | $20.5K | |
| Barack Obama | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $23.81 | $11.3K | |
| Michelle Obama | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $14.7K | |
| Liz Cheney | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | $3K | |
| Bernie Sanders | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $4.3K | |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $11.1K | |
| LeBron James | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $16.1K | |
| Katie Britt | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $32.26 | $26.4K | |
| Kim Kardashian | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | $6.6K | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $6.5K | |
| Mike Pence | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | $15.6K | |
| Jared Polis | 2% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $6.2K |
| MrBeast | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | $29.6K | |
| Mark Cuban | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $55.56 | $14.7K | |
| Roy Cooper | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $7K | |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $8.3K | |
| Tim Walz | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | $6.8K | |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $13.5K | |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $19.9K | ||
| Byron Donalds | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel
Search ›-
Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson slams former Mayor Rahm Emanuel and his policiesUpdated on: April 22, 2025 / 7:33 PM CDT / CBS Chicago Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson had scathing words Tuesday about not just President Trump, but also former Mayor Rahm Emanuel. Mayor Johnson blamed both men for Chicago's current… -
Rahm Emanuel pleads for the Democratic Party to welcome more 'McCain-Romney Republicans'Former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel pressed Democrats to include moderate Republicans in their coalition. (Getty Images) Former Obama White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel encouraged the Democratic Party to appeal to moderate… -
Pete Buttigieg joins Ossoff in Atlanta rallySen. Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg launched an Avondale Estates canvass. "This election is our last best chance to at least rein in some of the foolishness of this administration," Obama said. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania… -
Pete Buttigieg to rally with Scott Colom on Mississippi Coast next weekBILOXI, Miss. – Former U.S. Transportation Secretary and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is scheduled to visit the Mississippi Gulf Coast next week for a campaign rally with Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom. According… -
Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028Sirota | Substack Rahm Emanuel’s Plan To Make Sure Democrats Lose In 2028 Desperate to cast their do-nothing, pro-billionaire agenda as shrewd politics, Democratic elites pretend the key swing vote is country-club Republicans rather than… - 2009 WARNING: Rahm Emanuel Recalls Telling Netanyahu Judea and Samaria Housing Policies Would Leave Israel IsolatedFormer Obama White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel recalled warning Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2009 that Israeli housing policies in Judea and Samaria would lead to Israel’s “political isolation” and “perpetual conflict.” 2009 WARNING…
-
Rahm Emanuel: 'We're at a Tipping Point, There Is No Reset Button' for Israel-U.S. RelationsIn this episode of the Haaretz podcast, Rahm Emanuel – former White House chief-of-staff, veteran Democratic party insider, and potential presidential hopeful – speaks with guest host Joshua Leifer about the future of the U.S.-Israel… -
Rahm Emanuel Is “Cautiously Optimistic” About the Democrats’ Midterm Prospects“Trump’s Repudiation Is at Hand, Right?,” by Susan B. Glasser “How ICE Is Targeting the 2026 Midterms,” by Jonathan Blitzer “Can Justin J. Pearson Win in Tennessee?,” by Keeanga-Yamahtta Taylor “How Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Gave… -
Pete Buttigieg to campaign with Pia Dandiya in CD 22Buttigieg, who served as Transportation Secretary under President Joe Biden, will appear with Dandiya in Plantation for a canvassing launch. Dandiya is running in the battleground Florida’s 22nd Congressional District against Republican… -
Pete Buttigieg rallies for Virginia Dems: ‘We have the right kind of leaders to carry us forward’The former Democratic presidential candidate and Biden administration Cabinet secretary urged voters to help Democrats in three competitive races in Virginia. Excited voters crowded into the Henrico Theatre outside Richmond on Oct. 19 to… -
Pete Buttigieg rallies with Taylor, Luria, PerrielloPete Buttigieg, a former U.S. transportation secretary and presidential candidate, took the stage at the Henrico Theatre on Monday to rally Virginia Democrats ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Joining Buttigieg were 1st District… -
"The Angle:" In depth with former Mayor Rahm Emanuel, State's Atty. Eileen BurkePolitical Reporter Chris Tye recently sat down with Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel to talk about the state of the city and other issues, and Cook County State’s Attorney Eileen Burke, who talked about the problems with the county’s…
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- Democratic Party92%▼ 1
- Republican Party9%▲ 1
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- JD Vance19%▼ 1
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- Gavin Newsom16%▲ 1
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions