France declares state of emergency by...?
10%December 31
- October 211%
- October 311%
- December 3110%▲ 1
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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
The odds
40%December 31, 2027
- October 31, 2026<1%
- November 30, 20262%
- December 31, 20267%
- March 31, 202712%
- June 30, 202730%▲ 1
- December 31, 202740%
How the odds have moved
November 30, 2026: 3% on Oct 20, 2% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $392K | |||
| October 31, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $174K | ||
| November 30, 2026 | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $41.67 | $42.1K | |
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | $2.4M | |
| March 31, 2027 | 12% | 11¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | $29.7K | |
| June 30, 2027 | 30% | ▲ 1 | 29¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | $6.4K |
| December 31, 2027 | 40% | 39¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | $9.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chancellor of Germany, Friedrich Merz
Search ›-
Who is Friedrich Merz, the man on course to lead Germany after its election?February 24, 2025 / 1:09 PM EST / CBS/AP Friedrich Merz, who is on course to become post-World War II Germany's 10th chancellor after the country's election, has vowed to prioritize European unity and the continent's security as it… -
Germany investing in military amid concerns over Putin, uncertainty about U.S. support for European defenseDecember 14, 2025 / 7:50 PM EST / CBS News Nearly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Germany is beefing up its security, increasing military enlistment and investing in an innovative array of defense technology… -
Ukrainian held in Germany on suspicion of spying for Russia as Merz warns of more casesBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A German court has… - A Red Star Rising Over GermanyIn late January 2025, a month before the German federal elections, a little-known 36-year-old politician took to the Reichstag’s central podium and ignited a movement. Heidi Reichinnek had been co-leader of Die Linke for a few weeks, and…
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Germany target of 'intensive' espionage, Merz says after suspected Russian spy arrestChancellor Friedrich Merz says Russian intelligence activity in Germany remains 'at a consistently high level' Germany is the target of "intensive" espionage activity, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said after a Ukrainian national was… -
On the ground at Nvidia GTC Berlin: Jensen Huang, robot ducks and neocloud distressThis report is from this week’s The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here. Jensen Huang has been busy. Nvidia’s GTC in Berlin was the grand finale of a week-and-a-half whistle stop European tour. Huang met… -
Merz warns of threats from Moscow and radical forcesGermany faces serious threats from domestic extremist forces and external enemies, including Russia, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Oct. 24, according to DW. Moscow is reportedly trying every day to destabilize the situation in… -
Merz says Germany faces massive threat from RussiaGerman Chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed concern over a significant threat posed by Russia to Germany’s stability, highlighting the need for urgent economic reforms. BERLIN: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned on Saturday that… -
Friedrich Merz AI strategy: Germany's Merz touts defence, AI and chip investment drive in pitch to investorsGermany's Merz touts defence, AI and chip investment drive in pitch to investors The Economic Times Germany's Merz touts defence, AI and chip investment drive in pitch to investors Listen to this article in summarized format Read more news… -
Merz: Russia seeks to destabilise Germany on a daily basisДолучайтеся до клубу УП! German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has highlighted the threat Germany faces from extremist parties and foreign enemies, specifically noting a "massive threat" from Russia. He says Russia is seeking "to destabilise… -
Iran urges France, Germany, UK to examine root cause of military conflictIran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, has said that France, Germany and the UK, known as the E3, and Middle Eastern foreign ministers must examine the root causes of military conflict in the region. In Istanbul, the… -
German AfD Party Leader Alice Weidel Outlines Severity of German Economic ProblemAlternative for Deutschland (AfD) party leader Alice Weidel represents the opposition leader within the current German political system. The AfD party is on the rise within Germany as the severe leftist and globalist policies carried out…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions