France declares state of emergency by...?
10%December 31
- October 211%
- October 312%
- December 3110%▲ 1
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Lecornu out as French PM by...?
The odds
18%December 31, 2026
- October 31, 20263%
- December 31, 202618%▼ 5
How the odds have moved
October 31, 2026: 5% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | <1% | 0¢ | $129K | |||
| June 30, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $26.6K | |||
| July 31, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $1.2K | |||
| August 31, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $5.2K | |||
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | 0¢ | $11.2K | |||
| October 31 | <1% | 0¢ | $159K | |||
| October 31, 2026 | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $2.6K | |
| November 30 | <1% | 0¢ | $5.2K | |||
| December 31, 2026 | 18% | ▼ 5 | 16¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | $28.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: French PM, Lecornu
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French PM Visits Limoges Town Hall Destroyed By Fire During ProtestsSat Oct 24, 2026 October 24, 2026 9:16 AM GMT+1 French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has visited Limoges under heavy police security following a fire that severely damaged the city’s historic town hall during protests on October 17… - Sébastien Lecornu Says Trappes Paris Shooting Suspect Was ApprehendedOne person was killed and at least four others were injured in the Paris shooting in Trappes, west of Paris, on Friday morning. French police are treating the case as a terrorist incident, and the suspected attacker was later apprehended…
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French Government Blames Black Bloc for Arson, LootingFrench PM cites premeditated far-left campaigns as 3,000 stores looted nationwide The French go - French PM to meet unions as government prepares for more protestsThe eurozone's second-largest economy was rocked on the weekend by some of its worst rioting in recent years, just six months before voters head to the polls to elect a successor to President Emmanuel Macron. Sebastien Lecornu will meet…
- French PM Lecornu to meet with unions — The HinduUA.NEWS French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu will meet with representatives of five trade unions on the morning of October 21. The meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and will focus on security during protests and ensuring the freedom to…
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French PM meets unions as France braces for Saturday protestsKuwait Times French PM meets unions as France braces for Saturday protests PARIS: French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu was due to meet union leaders on Wednesday as the country prepares for new protests, after last weekend’s… -
French PM vows stronger security as country prepares for more protestsFrance 24 To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to… - Following 'unacceptable acts': French PM to meet unions as government prepares for more protestsFrance's prime minister was to meet union leaders on Wednesday as the country prepares for new protests following those last weekend that descended into the worst riots seen in years. Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has vowed a "massive"…
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"Legitimate and enormous anger": French union leader calls on PM Lecornu to respond to protesters' demandsZelenskyy says Ukraine ready to 'freeze' conflict along current front line, move to diplomacy US House Panel questions Webull’s data security assurances over China links Pakistani military drone strikes kill three civilians in Balochistan… - French PM Faces Angry MPs as Fresh Protests LoomFrench Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is due to meet trade union representatives on Wednesday to discuss security concerns after last week's riots, while pledging a “massive” police deployment ahead of fresh demonstrations planned for…
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France steps up security as PM meets unions following riots and mass arrestsUpdated On: 21 October, 2026 12:05 PM IST | Paris | AFP French PM Sebastien Lecornu has vowed a massive police deployment ahead of fresh protests following violent unrest over rising living costs. Authorities have imposed curfews, arrested… -
France braces for another weekend of protests amid nationwide riotsFrance 24 To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement. One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions