Putin out as President of Russia by...?
10%June 30, 2027
- December 31, 20262%▼ 1
- June 30, 202710%▼ 1
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Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
The odds
13%December 31
- March 31, 202713%▲ 2
- December 3113%
How the odds have moved
March 31, 2027: 13% on Oct 20, 13% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 13% | ▲ 2 | 15¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | $77.8K |
| September 30 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $193K | ||
| December 31 | 13% | 8¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | $60K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ukraine, Russia, Zelensky
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Russia explores Putin, Trump, Xi summit on Ukraine dealThe Wall Street Journal reported that talks could take places in the Chinese city of Shenzhen in November. Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Russian Presidential Press Service via AP) | Russian Presidential Press Service via AP 10/19/2026… -
Witkoff plans Ukraine peace talks in Norway, Putin meeting in RussiaU.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Norway this week for peace talks involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European officials before traveling to Russia for a meeting with… -
Putin floats US-China-Russia summit to end Ukraine war, WSJ reportsUS President Donald Trump is already facing blowback from Republicans for his overtures to Putin, including waiving Russia sanctions. Russiaâs Vladimir Putin floated the possibility of a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US… -
President Trump waives Russia sanctions as Vladimir Putin floats Ukraine summitRussia launches massive infrastructure attacks as President Donald Trump waives economic sanctions, prompting former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman to analyze national security stakes. Hoffman discusses Vladimir Putin floating a Ukraine… -
Zelensky: Ukraine has retaken more territory than Russia captured this fallUkrainian forces have recaptured more territory than Russian forces have seized this fall, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an Oct. 18 post on social media. "We are seeing results on the front," Zelensky said, in his evening video… -
Zelensky says Ukraine received no warning from partners as Russia hits power grid againRussia launched new attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure using ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday, adding that Kyiv again received no early warning of the attack from partner countries… -
Russia strikes 28 critical energy facilities across Ukraine in latest wave of attacks, Zelensky saysRussian attacks struck 28 substations and other critical energy facilities across Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Oct. 19, following another wave of missile and drone attacks on the country's energy infrastructure. Russian… -
US resumes intel sharing on Russian missile launches with Ukraine, Zelensky saysThe United States has resumed sharing intelligence about incoming Russian ballistic missiles with Ukraine after a pause lasting several days, President Volodymyr Zelensky told NBC News' "Meet the Press" in an interview published on Oct… -
Zelensky reveals US intel sharing is back after blackout left Ukraine blind to Russian attacksWASHINGTON — President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that US intelligence sharing with Ukraine is back on after a blackout left the country blind to incoming Russian attacks. Zelensky expressed gratitude that the lull in intelligence… -
Democratic Senator on 'Fierce' Call with Ukrainian President ZelenskyDemocratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal describes what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told him about the Trump administration’s alleged actions and how it is affecting war-torn Ukraine ... Democratic Senator on ‘Fierce’ Call with… -
Trump’s Russia sanctions pause will pressure Putin to ‘tone down’ war in Ukraine: energy secretaryWASHINGTON — President Trump’s decision to ease sanctions on Russian diesel deliveries will actually put more pressure on the Kremlin, Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed Sunday. Wright contended that bringing down hurdles for Russia to… -
Zelensky warns Russia may expand missile threats from Belarus against western UkrainePresident Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia may use Belarus to intensify missile and drone attacks on western Ukraine, putting the region under a growing threat. Speaking to journalists on Oct. 17, Zelensky said Russia was already using…
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NATO x Russia military clash by...?
23%December 31
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Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
66%Ursula von der Leyen
- Ursula von der Leyen66%▲ 23
- Mark Rutte37%▲ 2
- Emmanuel Macron13%▼ 1
4 more
- António Guterres12%▼ 1
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.