María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
>99%October 31
- October 31>99%▲ 89
- December 31>99%▲ 67
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Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
The odds
26%None before 2027
- None before 202726%▼ 9
- Susie Wiles25%▲ 1
- Pete Hegseth14%▲ 5
- Mike Waltz5%
- Russell T. Vought4%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.4%▼ 1
- Scott Turner4%▲ 4
- Marco Rubio4%
- Chris Wright3%
- John Ratcliffe3%
- Kelly Loeffler2%
- Howard Lutnick2%
9 more
- Brooke Rollins2%
- Lee Zeldin1%
- Doug Burgum1%
- J.D. Vance1%
- Sean Duffy1%
- Scott Bessent1%
- Linda McMahon1%
- Jamieson Greer1%
- Doug Collins<1%
How the odds have moved
None before 2027: 38% on Oct 20, 26% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 11 PM ETNone before 2027: 35% → 27%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 26% | ▼ 9 | 26¢ | 26¢ | $3.79 | $74.6K |
| Susie Wiles | 25% | ▲ 1 | 25¢ | 27¢ | $3.75 | $16K |
| Pete Hegseth | 14% | ▲ 5 | 14¢ | 16¢ | $6.29 | $5.6K |
| Mike Waltz | 5% | 4¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | $1.7K | |
| Russell T. Vought | 4% | 1¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $887 | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | $24.3K |
| Scott Turner | 4% | ▲ 4 | 2¢ | 7¢ | $15.38 | $1.2K |
| Marco Rubio | 4% | 0¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | $892 | |
| Chris Wright | 3% | 1¢ | 6¢ | $17.86 | $1.3K | |
| John Ratcliffe | 3% | 0¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | $913 | |
| Kelly Loeffler | 2% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.41 | $1.2K | |
| Howard Lutnick | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $23.26 | $1.3K | |
| Brooke Rollins | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | $1.1K | |
| Lee Zeldin | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $47.62 | $1.5K | |
| Doug Burgum | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | $1.2K | |
| J.D. Vance | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | $841 | |
| Sean Duffy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | $1.1K | |
| Scott Bessent | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3.2K | ||
| Linda McMahon | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1.3K | ||
| Jamieson Greer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $100.00 | $798 | |
| Doug Collins | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $966 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump Cabinet, Susie Wiles, Pete Hegseth
Search ›-
Sen. Adam Schiff says Pete Hegseth should testify on Starlink slowdown in UkraineSen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth should testify before the Senate on the Starlink satellite limitations that disrupted Ukrainian military operations, if… -
Barack Obama Slams Donald Trump, Pete Hegseth Over Iran WarOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT Oct 24, 2026 at 04:08 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama criticized President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Saturday over the war with Iran, calling the administration “not serious… -
Politico Corrects Susie Wiles Story After Trump Official's ThreatPolitico corrected a report from last week on the role that Donald Trump‘s Chief of Staff Susie Wiles played preceding the exit of Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary. But the media outlet’s attorney is warning the Trump… -
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles Posts Fake AI Picture of Melania and Barron Trump on a Non Existent Red Carpet (See Inside)Susie Wiles is the White House chief of staff. Her father was Pat Summerall, a legend! She has the president’s ear all day. She supposedly has to tell the truth! Anyway, she’s posted a fake AI picture of Melania and Barron Trump on a… -
Politico corrects Susie Wiles-Katie Zacharia article after White House threatens ‘consequences’Politico corrected an article about White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles after the White House threatened it with unspecified “consequences” – but refused to change two more pieces and accused the Trump administration of retaliation. The… -
White House threatens Politico with 'consequences' if it doesn't retract Susie Wiles reportingThe White House is leveling "consequences" against Politico over its recent reporting on Trump chief of staff Susie Wiles. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images) Politico has issued a correction and re-examined multiple articles… -
Rep. Crow: ‘My Priority Number One’ Is Ousting Pete HegsethOn Sunday’s broadcast of CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) said “priority number one if we retake the majority, to make sure we oust” Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. Partial transcript as follows: MARGARET BRENNAN: I want to… -
Pete Hegseth Reportedly Angling For Blackburn's Senate Seat To Avoid ImpeachmentThe midterms will shape our future. HuffPost holds power accountable. Become a member to keep independent journalism strong. The defense secretary might try an intriguing escape route, according to Puck. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is… -
The historic significance of the WWII-era globe damaged by Pete Hegseth's staffA WWII-era globe – one that once belonged to President Dwight Eisenhower – was damaged after an attempted relocation to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's office. TY SEIDULE: Hi, Juana. Thanks for having me on. SUMMERS: Thanks for being… -
Barack Obama 'Declares War' on Pete HegsethBarack Obama is very concerned about Pete Hegseth's testosterone levels. Or at least, he is concerned about Pete Hegseth's concern about testosterone levels. The former president "declared war" on the War Secretary in a sprawling… - Susie Wiles ‘offered positive reinforcement’ for press secretary’s Fox News interview ahead of her exitThe interview with Sean Hannity turned into a pointed examination of Zacharia’s credentials and her brief tenure. CORRECTION: An earlier version of this report, including its headline, mischaracterized the role White House chief of staff…
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U.S. military boards go rogue to defy Pete Hegseth’s ban on transgender troopsBy Jillian Butler, Daily Caller News Foundation Military boards are disobeying Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s ban on openly transgender-identifying service members in the U.S. Armed Forces. Directly after this executive order, the…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions