Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › Around the world Closes Oct 24, 2027 · $5.6K today · $1.1M traded · $144K at stake · prices read 30 min ago

The odds

46%Javier Milei

Javier Milei46%
Axel Kicillof29%
Sergio Massa10%▼ 4
Patricia Bullrich6%▲ 1
Myriam Bregman2%▲ 1
Dante Gebel1%
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner1%
Daniel Hadad1%
Karina Milei1%
Lionel Messi1%
Victoria Villarruel<1%
Alberto Fernández<1%

9 more

Máximo Kirchner<1%
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro<1%
Juan Grabois<1%
Juan Schiaretti<1%
Facundo Manes<1%
Mauricio Macri<1%
Guillermo Moreno<1%
Esteban Bullrich<1%
Nicolás del Caño<1%

How the odds have moved

Javier Milei: 47% on Oct 20, 46% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Javier Milei	46%		46¢	47¢	$2.13	$281K
Axel Kicillof	29%		29¢	30¢	$3.33	$145K
Sergio Massa	10%	▼ 4	9¢	12¢	$8.70	$107K
Patricia Bullrich	6%	▲ 1	6¢	7¢	$14.49	$37.3K
Myriam Bregman	2%	▲ 1	1¢	3¢	$35.71	$64.9K
Dante Gebel	1%		1¢	1¢	$83.33	$54K
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	$23.7K
Daniel Hadad	1%		1¢	1¢	$100.00	$34K
Karina Milei	1%			1¢	$90.91	$11.1K
Lionel Messi	1%		0¢	1¢		$25.5K
Victoria Villarruel	<1%		0¢	1¢		$44.9K
Alberto Fernández	<1%			1¢		$436
Máximo Kirchner	<1%			1¢		$19.1K
Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro	<1%			0¢		$15.7K
Juan Grabois	<1%		0¢	0¢		$48K
Juan Schiaretti	<1%		0¢	0¢		$49.5K
Facundo Manes	<1%		0¢	0¢		$40.6K
Mauricio Macri	<1%		0¢	0¢		$55.5K
Guillermo Moreno	<1%		0¢	0¢		$26.3K
Esteban Bullrich	<1%			0¢		$45.1K
Nicolás del Caño	<1%			0¢		$140

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Argentina Presidential, Javier Milei, Axel Kicillof

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How Much Contempt Does Javier Milei Have for the State?Reason Magazine · 4 days ago"My contempt for the state is infinite." —Javier Milei, explaining his willingness to make deep cuts to existing spending and regulation in Argentina, from an interview with The Economist in 2024. NEXT: Brickbat: Don't Slap Me Five Meagan…
Javier Milei once again rules out 'military solutions' to seize the Falkland IslandsGB News · 5 days agoArgentina's invasion of the archipelago in 1982 ended in just 74 days Sir John Redwood says Javier Milei's provocations over the Falklands reflect his unpopularity at home Javier Milei officially ruled out "military solutions" to seize the…
Argentina's Javier Milei issues huge update on Falkland IslandsExpress.co.uk · 5 days agoArgentine President Javier Milei has ruled out invading the Falkland Islands to seize control of them from Britain. The firebrand libertarian claimed London is a “geopolitical and demographic” risk to security. But, whilst repeating his…
Spanish Students Protest Javier Milei’s Visit to UniversityteleSURenglish · 6 days agoThe sign reads, “Reactionaries out of the university.” Oct. 21, 2026. Madrid. X/ @OES_Madrid October 21, 2026 Hour: 8:28 am On Wednesday, hundreds of Spanish students gathered at Rey Juan Carlos University (URJC) to protest the visit of…
Argentine-born Trump supporter credits president for Latin America's rightward political shiftFox News · 3 days agoMarcelo Sandrin, who has lived in the US for three decades, points to Argentina's Javier Milei and changing politics across South America as signs of Trump's growing influence. Argentine-born Trump supporter credits president for Latin…
Lula wins fourth term as Brazil’s president over Flávio Bolsonarothe Guardian · 33 h agoLeftist incumbent Lula stages historic comeback weeks after narrowly losing first round of election to Bolsonaro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Brazilian president, has staged a dramatic election fightback, defeating his far-right…
Brazil becomes next test for Latin America’s surging conservative movementFox News · 2 days agoFlavio Bolsonaro joined supporters in Santa Barbara D'Oeste to lead a motorcade. Polls in Brazil show a tight presidential race with incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (Video: Reuters.) Brazil's estimated 158 million voters could advance…
Bolsonaro Lead Over Lula Shrinks as Trump Stays on Brazil Election SidelineNewsweek · 3 days agoOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to a statistical tie ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil, while President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro's most…
How Argentina’s Javier Milei hopes to exploit a dispute over Falklands oil in next year’s electionThe Conversation · 6 days agoArgentina is trying to stop a planned oil project near the Falkland Islands. On October 13, the government asked the International Tribunal for the Law of the Seas (Itlos), a court in Hamburg that deals with disputes over the sea, to halt…
Milei Blasts Argentine Press After Beating Libra Crypto ChargesBitcoin News · 46 h agoAfter having all charges dismissed in the Libra case, President Javier Milei claimed that several journalists used the case to extort the government in exchange for dodging taxes, and celebrated the proper functioning of the Argentine…
Israeli embassy denies Netanyahu ordered suppot for Argentina on FalklandsIsrael & Jewish News - JNS · 45 h agoThe Israeli embassy in London on Saturday denied a British newspaper report that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered the Jewish state’s diplomatic corps to back Argentina’s position on the Falkland Islands. “I categorically deny…
Report: 'Netanyahu ordered policy shift to support Argentina in Falkland Islands dispute'ynetglobal · 3 days agoThe British Telegraph reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided that Israel will support Argentina on the Falkland Islands issue. According to the report, he instructed diplomats to change Israel's official position, to…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesOct 24, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.1M

Today$5.6K

This week$86.7K

At stake$144K

In the news1 headlines today, 6 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Direc

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions