Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
65%Democrats Sweep
- Democrats Sweep65%
- R Senate, D House26%
- Republicans Sweep7%
2 more
- D Senate, R House1%
- Other<1%
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2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
The odds
25%Democrats 8-10%
- Democrats 8-10%25%▼ 1
- Democrats 10-12%23%▼ 3
- Democrats 6-8%13%▼ 1
- Democrats 12-14%12%
- Democrats 4-6%7%▼ 2
- Democrats 14-16%4%
- Democrats 16%+4%▲ 1
- Democrats 2-4%3%▲ 1
- Democrats 0-2%3%▼ 1
- Republicans 2-4%2%
- Republicans 0-2%2%
- Republicans 4-6%1%
1 more
- Republicans 6%+1%
How the odds have moved
Democrats 8-10%: 28% on Oct 20, 25% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 8-10% | 25% | ▼ 1 | 24¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | $17.6K |
| Democrats 10-12% | 23% | ▼ 3 | 22¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | $11.7K |
| Democrats 6-8% | 13% | ▼ 1 | 13¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | $18.4K |
| Democrats 12-14% | 12% | 11¢ | 13¢ | $7.75 | $7K | |
| Democrats 4-6% | 7% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $13.1K |
| Democrats 14-16% | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | $21.28 | $4.9K | |
| Democrats 16%+ | 4% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 5¢ | $21.74 | $6K |
| Democrats 2-4% | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 5¢ | $19.23 | $19.3K |
| Democrats 0-2% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $24.39 | $22.9K |
| Republicans 2-4% | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | $31.6K | |
| Republicans 0-2% | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $30.30 | $7.3K | |
| Republicans 4-6% | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $62.50 | $6K | |
| Republicans 6%+ | 1% | 1¢ | 1¢ | $5.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory, Midterms
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Final sprint to midtermsPresident Trump and former President Obama appeared on the campaign trail during the final sprint to the midterms. NBC News’ Monica Alba reports. Comey faces criminal charges for third time Police called to three-year-old’s soccer game… -
Trump, Obama hold rallies ahead of midtermsPresident Trump is holding several rallies, including in deep-red states, in the week before the midterm as he tries to keep his party in control of Congress. Former President Barack Obama is also headlining events, hoping to help flip… -
‘Seen and Unseen’: Celebrities make their midterm pitchFox News contributor Raymond Arroyo discusses Hollywood celebrities backing Democrats in key 2026 midterm races and former Vice President Kamala Harris hitting the campaign trail on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ ‘Seen and Unseen’: Celebrities make… -
How Student Loan Default Rates Could Impact Midterm VotersOct 26, 2026 at 05:30 PM EDT Millions of Americans struggling with student loan payments could be bringing their frustrations to the ballot boxes. Amid the Trump administration’s many changes affecting the Department of Education (DOE)… -
Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races'Special Report' executive editor Bret Baier hosts a countdown to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing key matchups that could decide the balance of power. Midterm Sprint: Bret Baier breaks down competitive Senate races 'Special Report'… -
Trump Offers $1M for Election Fraud Convictions Week Before MidtermsOct 26, 2026 at 06:23 PM EDT President Donald Trump has offered $1 million to people who report voter fraud that results in an arrest and conviction, raising the financial stakes of his election-integrity push just over a week before the… -
Gretchen Whitmer asked whether 'hidden xenophobia' will affect midterm electionsMichigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was asked by MS NOW anchor Peter Alexander whether Republicans are seeking out "hidden xenophobia" ahead of the Senate race. MS NOW anchor Peter Alexander asked Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, D-Mich., on Sunday… -
Young Georgians ready to rock the vote this midtermCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Young Georgians ready… -
Trump travels to Mississippi to campaign before the midtermsPresident Trump is travelling to Mississippi to campaign before the midterms. The state's U.S. Senate race has seen millions of dollars in last-minute spending. President Trump kicks off his final week of campaign travel before the… -
Cobb County SPLOST up for renewal this midterm electionCBS News Atlanta is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WUPA and channel 69, CBS News Atlanta offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Cobb County SPLOST up… -
Ohio voters motivated ahead of midtermsFox News' Steve Doocy visits JC's Restaurant in Burton, Ohio, to hear from voters about the tightening governor's race. Local residents share their perspectives on the candidates and key issues. Ohio voters motivated ahead of midterms Fox… -
WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midtermsThe president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. WATCH LIVE: Trump rallies voters in Mississippi ahead of midterms The president is campaigning for Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
Related markets
All president 2028 ›Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
38%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance38%
- Marco Rubio18%
- Ron DeSantis4%
40 more
- Tucker Carlson3%
- Ted Cruz2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Donald Trump Jr.2%
- Ivanka Trump2%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Brian Kemp1%
- Elon Musk1%▲ 1
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<1%
- Josh Hawley<1%
- Rand Paul<1%
- Marjorie Taylor Greene<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Katie Britt<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders<1%
- Byron Donalds<1%
- Elise Stefanik<1%
- Kristi Noem<1%
- Mike Pence<1%
- Steve Bannon<1%
- Joe Kent<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- John McEntee<1%
- Matt Gaetz<1%
- John Thune<1%
- Tom Brady<1%
- Erika Kirk<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
92%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party92%▼ 1
- Republican Party9%
Presidential Election Winner 2028
19%JD Vance
- JD Vance19%▼ 1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Gavin Newsom12%
51 more
- Marco Rubio10%▲ 1
- Jon Ossoff9%
- Kamala Harris4%
- Ron DeSantis3%
- Josh Shapiro3%
- Pete Buttigieg3%
- Andy Beshear2%
- James Talarico2%
- Donald Trump2%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
- Tucker Carlson1%
- Mark Kelly1%
- Wes Moore1%
- Thomas Massie1%
- Raphael Warnock1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- JB Pritzker1%
- Ivanka Trump1%
- Donald Trump Jr.1%
- Ted Cruz1%
- Rahm Emanuel<1%
- Gretchen Whitmer<1%
- Michelle Obama<1%
- Jamie Dimon<1%
- Glenn Youngkin<1%
- Tulsi Gabbard<1%
- Greg Abbott<1%
- Elon Musk<1%
- Stephen Smith<1%
- Nikki Haley<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- Vivek Ramaswamy<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Eric Trump<1%
- Pete Hegseth<1%
- Jalen Brunson<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
- Candace Owens<1%
- Tim Scott<1%
- Mike Johnson<1%
- Doug Burgum<1%
- Tom Cotton<1%
- John N. Kennedy<1%
- Rick Scott<1%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
17%Gavin Newsom
- Gavin Newsom17%▲ 1
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%▼ 1
- Jon Ossoff15%▼ 1
50 more
- Kamala Harris6%
- Josh Shapiro5%
- Pete Buttigieg5%
- Andy Beshear4%
- James Talarico3%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Wes Moore2%
- Raphael Warnock2%
- Rahm Emanuel2%
- J.B. Pritzker1%
- Bernie Sanders1%
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson1%
- Ro Khanna1%
- Chelsea Clinton1%
- Cory Booker1%
- Michelle Obama1%
- Jon Stewart1%
- Gretchen Whitmer1%
- Roy Cooper<1%
- Chris Murphy<1%
- Mark Cuban<1%
- Barack Obama<1%
- Hillary Clinton<1%
- Hunter Biden<1%
- Ruben Gallego<1%
- Stephen A. Smith<1%
- Gina Raimondo<1%
- Zohran Mamdani<1%
- Jared Polis<1%
- Phil Murphy<1%
- Jasmine Crockett<1%
- Abigail Spanberger<1%
- Hakeem Jeffries<1%
- Elissa Slotkin<1%
- Josh Stein<1%
- Chris Van Hollen<1%
- Mitch Landrieu<1%
- Tim Walz<1%
- John Fetterman<1%
- Liz Cheney<1%
- LeBron James<1%
- George Clooney<1%
- MrBeast<1%
- Oprah Winfrey<1%
- Andrew Yang<1%
- Beto O’Rourke<1%
- Kim Kardashian<1%
- Graham Platner<1%
- Adam Schiff<1%
- Alex Padilla<1%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
54%Nithya Raman
- Nithya Raman54%
- Karen Bass46%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Conservative, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Conservative index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Conservative Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions